Rising CPI expectations is pushing a bit through today.
Influences risk-on sentiment quite a bit. Especially alts.
Do think Bitcoin is quite a bit "sturdier" though against this.
Especially on the weekly I like the current pattern which today could just be a normal retest influenced by CPI or not.
There's never a guaranteed in trading and just like our job was to be relatively early on spotting the top in the last uptrend (which we did),
So is our job this time to be relatively early on spotting the bottom (not realizing it at $100k+ for example).
It's what does make this game so hard though:
If you don't believe the bottom is in yet it is most likely that you'll indeed pivot to believing it very late ($100k+ ?).
The other end of the spectrum is that if we are wrong and to early on thinking the bottom is in is that we'll be to early to buy more pain (not the best entry either).
That being said I'm in the first camp. Saw more resilience in Bitcoin (longer and stronger) along with equities surging that I believe might not be just a typical bear retracement anymore.
Hence why I've always called today's dip the ultimate positioning window as the higher low range will be formed.
I nonetheless like the odds as exiting was done at ~ $100k last year and higher levels on alts as well.
Going to either have a perfect entry now or be to early on this but that's simply the eternal risk to reward loop.
I still remain more in bull camp than bear camp since last month.
To Valhalla and beyond! 🚀


BTCActivation price $77,356.01Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Mid
Max Favorable +1.1%Max Adverse −23.6%Opportunity 0.32Time 0.06Magnitude 0.32Score 0.12
Markets dump a little and everyone makes it look like Bitcoin has chosen its direction.
I get it, at first glance it looks similar. The same "bear range" as the previous on.
Early on I was also in the same camp as you follow the trend until proven otherwise.
Yet slowly, that actually happened. The proven otherwise part.
At the end of the day everything each and every one of us does is speculating. So guarantees don't exist.
Yet slowly to me the current pattern has been turning into a bottoming pattern.
1/ Recovered higher than my bear continuation scenario
2/ Not a brutal sell-off at key levels
3/ Longer in length than a quick bear really as well
Then why are we dropping a bit?
(and yes I say a bit as it's really nothing yet).
Simple, we have yet to make a higher low. A correction to even the low-mid 70s is entirely possible if the bottom is already in.
Basically the opposite with what we have been doing in the downtrend for the past 6 months +
For me it's pretty simple:
I've been relatively early on spotting the downtrend/bear market last year.
Then I go back to looking at structure again. Whenever it shows up.
That could have happened as early as the 80-98k range (it wasn't and I've been vocal on this).
It could have also not happened in the current 60-80k range and even lower.
But it did, at least to me. The 60-80k range has proven to be strong enough to turn things around for me.
So with structure changing, it's now adapting from the next correction being a lower low to a higher low and positioning for it.
BTCActivation price $78,922.12Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Mid
Max Favorable +4.0%Max Adverse −25.1%Opportunity 0.89Time 0.10Magnitude 0.89Score 0.33
$TON
$SUI
$MNT
$RENDER
...
Pretty much take your pick.
Likely won't take long to see some upside on these either.
Not expecting all of these to go back to their highs just like that though.
But upside? Yes https://t.co/EFVrMzKLRl
RENDERActivation price $1.86Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Short
Max Favorable +31.1%Max Adverse −6.8%Opportunity 0.91Time 0.60Magnitude 0.91Score 0.83
$TON
$SUI
$MNT
$RENDER
...
Pretty much take your pick.
Likely won't take long to see some upside on these either.
Not expecting all of these to go back to their highs just like that though.
But upside? Yes https://t.co/EFVrMzKLRl
MNTActivation price $0.66Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Short
Max Favorable +5.9%Max Adverse −6.9%Opportunity 0.87Time 0.33Magnitude 0.87Score 0.51
$TON
$SUI
$MNT
$RENDER
...
Pretty much take your pick.
Likely won't take long to see some upside on these either.
Not expecting all of these to go back to their highs just like that though.
But upside? Yes https://t.co/EFVrMzKLRl
SUIActivation price $1.24Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Short
Max Favorable +3.0%Max Adverse −20.6%Opportunity 0.73Time 0.05Magnitude 0.73Score 0.27