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Passport #151176 · Jul 12, 2026 · 18:53 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
At the exact equal range lows it ain't a bad local pattern imo.
Reversals often begin with some sort of W shape pattern.
Especially with confluence at strong support.
Ethereum's biggest next new upgrade since the merge happening in the second half of 2026 will likely also not be a coincidence in hindsight looking at the price action by then.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | ETH |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | ETH |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 75 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bullish lean based on 'reversals often begin with W pattern' at 'strong support' and expectation that 2026 upgrade will coincide with favorable price action. No explicit price targets given. 'Likely' and 'imo' indicate mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = ETH reverses upward. No explicit horizon bound to the outcome. The post references a 2026 upgrade in 'the second half of 2026' but this is a catalyst/event phrase, not a horizon bound to the predicted price outcome. The W-pattern reversal at range lows with confluence support is a bottom-call/trend-reversal framing → Signal B2; paired with macro/upgrade cycle framing ('not a coincidence in hindsight') → ↑ to 60.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | ETH |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $1,821 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 75 days · Long Term |
Scoring
0.62composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.56 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.69 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 1.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.56 |
| Max Favorable Move | +8.8% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −3.9% |
| Candles evaluated | 1730 · 3d |
| Eval window | Jul 12, 2026 · 18:53 UTC → Jul 30, 2026 · 19:15 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 75 |
| Duration used in scoring | 75 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $1,821 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 71.22,
"mfe": 159.82,
"mqs": 0.557791,
"ocs": 0.691741,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-27 06:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.248703,
"sigma_d": 0.02826614,
"eval_end": "2026-07-30 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.557791,
"max_close": 1975.73,
"min_close": 1753.62,
"eval_start": "2026-07-12 18:53:54+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 75,
"mew_days_used": 75,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.815972,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.624559,
"activation_price": 1821.42,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1730,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.107534,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 7,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 7,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 7,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 7
}