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Passport #166302 · Jul 25, 2026 · 13:33 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
Can't find my original post anymore with an earlier version of today's chart but going a few months back I repeatedly emphasised that bottoms do NOT often V-shape recover.
Very very rarely that happens and bottoms usually look like this 👇
Fast forward to today and that chart has for the most part (slightly to my own surprise) almost entirely followed to pattern.
It's to early to claim victory on this one however. While price is following that usual pattern, we aren't at the push up phase yet.
Meaning it's to soon to call the bottom is in yet as price hasn't made its up move yet like in the chart I drew below.
But would be legendary in hindsight if it did despite the confirmation not being there yet as of today.
Still following it great so far though.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | — |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Tier 2 setup: dashed forecast path shows a small dip into the ~60,137 'Most common bottoms' demand zone before a larger rally up to ~85k. The dip is the setup/liquidity grab condition; the main directional bet is up after price bids into the demand zone.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,200 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 60 |
| Duration used in scoring | 60 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 4D |
| Merge source | chart_only |
| Direction source | chart |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | — |
| Spot price at post | $64,200 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_1_complex_path: path=4D
Merge Flags
orphan_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1457.51,
"mfe": 1544.62,
"mqs": 0.553052,
"ocs": 0.514508,
"tif": 0.666667,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-27 06:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.077719,
"sigma_d": 0.02294423,
"eval_end": "2026-07-30 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.553052,
"max_close": 65668.2,
"min_close": 62991.28,
"eval_start": "2026-07-25 13:33:29+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 60,
"mew_days_used": 60,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.805313,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.452986,
"activation_price": 64199.98,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 503,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.029876,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 3,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 3,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}