‘You don’t short the strongest asset’
Well you do when it’s at a key distributive inflection point and the asymmetry is there… not the confirmation
The ones giving bad trading advice probably can’t short…. Maybe…
Once again…. This goes back towards buying a stack of spot hype and into cold storage when I’ve finished…
HYPEActivation price $57.8Direction ShortType DirectionalTimeframe Mid
Max Favorable +8.9%Max Adverse −33.1%Opportunity 0.49Time 0.10Magnitude 0.49Score 0.29
$BTC
I don’t have a particularly strong directional view tbh, price largely remains rotational.
Structurally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a regime similar to May – July 2021 where the market oscillated within a compressed range before resolving, not something I’m overly fussed about trading.
Areas Of Interest =>
On the daily, the 12/21/25 EMAs around 70k–69k are key support imo, confluent with the 4-week composite value area high, ideally I'd want to see this hold. Trading below that level which is key imo, would likely have me leaning towards price taking the February lows, potentially into the 58s or near equal lows. If those levels hold, I’d be interested in longs for a range play - again if it sets up.
If we see further upside in the coming weeks, the 80–82k region stands out as meaningful resistance, confluent with the February high and single prints, with a typical mean reversion play back up into the 12/21/25 weekly EMA bands. I may contemplate selling there if it sets up from an order flow perspective.


BTCActivation price $68,114.02Direction ShortType ConditionalTrigger Hold Below 69000Timeframe Mid
Max Favorable +4.6%Max Adverse −11.6%Opportunity 0.24Time 0.35Magnitude 0.24Score 0.27
Bitcoin
Historically, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average, it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200MA or even the 300-week MA.
Since 2015, one pattern has remained consistent: Bitcoin tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.
Price has only dipped beneath the 300-week MA only once in its history and anything below the 200MA has been short lived for the best part of cycle lows.
If we revisit those levels, and the broader market context aligns, I’d view that zone as a high-probability buying opportunity...
Unless this time is... different.... ?
BTCActivation price $60,000Direction LongType ConditionalTrigger Hits 60000Timeframe Long
Max Favorable +38.1%Max Adverse +0.0%Opportunity 0.84Time 1.00Magnitude 0.84Score 0.90
Bitcoin
Historically, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average, it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200MA or even the 300-week MA.
Since 2015, one pattern has remained consistent: Bitcoin tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.
Price has only dipped beneath the 300-week MA only once in its history and anything below the 200MA has been short lived for the most cycle.
If we revisit those levels, and the broader market context aligns, I’d view that zone as a high-probability buying opportunity... unless this time is... different.
BTCActivation price $65,000Direction LongType ConditionalTrigger Hits 65000Timeframe Long
Max Favorable +27.5%Max Adverse −3.8%Opportunity 0.74Time 1.00Magnitude 0.74Score 0.81
Expectations or thoughts for the next few days - week
Give or take barring one more leg down
I suspect we see price have an intial sharp rally - which is likely to be fuelled by short covering if anything… followed by participants chasing into resistance
The sharper the bounce with minimal pullbacks - the likelihood it rolls over again for a rounded retest for where the key lows get established.
That’s across btc, eth, sol
Eventually carving out a very good trading range once again for traders to take advantage of - both sides.
The next part is figuring out where value is likely to be established…
If 98 holds then I’d say 98-110
If it’s lower then 88/92s - 102s
SOLActivation price $156.46Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Short
Max Favorable +9.9%Max Adverse −5.6%Opportunity 0.64Time 0.81Magnitude 0.64Score 0.71