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Passport #93663 · Nov 26, 2025 · 13:44 UTC · scored as of Jul 18, 2026 · 20:43 UTC
TR@Trader_XO
Nov 26, 2025 · 13:44 UTC
Bitcoin
Historically, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average, it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200MA or even the 300-week MA.
Since 2015, one pattern has remained consistent: Bitcoin tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.
Price has only dipped beneath the 300-week MA only once in its history and anything below the 200MA has been short lived for the best part of cycle lows.
If we revisit those levels, and the broader market context aligns, I’d view that zone as a high-probability buying opportunity...
Unless this time is... different.... ?
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $60,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Sweep Below (Reversal Up) |
AI Reasoning
Conditional bid setup: IF price revisits the 200MA/300MA zone, THEN it would be a high-probability buying opportunity. No explicit numeric trigger stated (only MA references) and no numeric target stated. Single claim with mild hedge ('I'd view that zone').
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC rises from 200MA/300MA zone (high-probability buying opportunity). No horizon phrase is bound to the outcome; the post is a historical/macro observation with no explicit timeframe attached to the predicted upside move. No bounce/urgency/macro-payoff signal fires clearly enough to override DEFAULT → 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1: BTCUSD on 1W timeframe identified from top-left header. Gate 2: asset matches Stage 3 (BTC). Gate 3: trigger structure present — the post references the 200/300 WMA zone as a bid area, and the chart explicitly plots these MAs with prior arrows marking historical touches as buy signals. Gate 4: direction consistent (UP bid at MA support). Current price read from y-axis badge at 86,985. Trigger extracted at near edge of the MA zone (200 WMA ~60k) at the right edge of chart. Confidence marked NOT PASS due to the dynamic nature of moving averages.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $60,000 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $60,000 |
| Trigger operator | Sweep Below (Reversal Up) |
| Conditional operator | Category D — Bidding / Wick / Liquidity Grab (Reversal UP) |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Feb 12, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.90composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.84 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 1.00 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 1.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.84 |
| Max Favorable Move | +38.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | +0.0% |
| Candles evaluated | 8641 · 1w |
| Eval window | Feb 12, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → May 13, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $86,975 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: truetrigger_p0_gap_pct: 31trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct: 31
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 0,
"mfe": 22850,
"mqs": 0.84445,
"ocs": 1,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-05-06 11:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.764305,
"sigma_d": 0.02240006,
"eval_end": "2026-05-13 00:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.84445,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 62820.77,
"eval_start": "2026-02-12 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 60000,
"trigger_ts": "2026-02-12 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {
"trigger_p0_gap_pct": 31,
"trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct": 31
},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.860787,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.902189,
"activation_price": 60000,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 8641,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.204662,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 14,
"trigger_candle_index": 11,
"aggregated_candles_count": 14,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 14,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 14
} 