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Passport #93662 · Nov 26, 2025 · 13:43 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
TR@Trader_XO
Nov 26, 2025 · 13:43 UTC
Bitcoin
Historically, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average, it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200MA or even the 300-week MA.
Since 2015, one pattern has remained consistent: Bitcoin tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.
Price has only dipped beneath the 300-week MA only once in its history and anything below the 200MA has been short lived for the most cycle.
If we revisit those levels, and the broader market context aligns, I’d view that zone as a high-probability buying opportunity... unless this time is... different.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $65,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Acceptance Below |
AI Reasoning
Trigger is the 200MA/300MA zone but no numeric price is stated, so trigger is null. Direction is up (buying opportunity at those MAs). No numeric target stated. Heavy hedge given 'I'd view... unless this time is different.'
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC rises (buying opportunity) after revisiting the 200MA/300MA zone. No horizon phrase is bound to the outcome — the post is a historical pattern observation with no explicit timeframe attached to the predicted upside move. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires clearly enough to override DEFAULT → 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gates 1-4 passed: chart is BTCUSD 1W, matches Stage 3 asset, trigger structure is visible as the 200WMA/300WMA zone referenced as a buy area, direction (up) is consistent. Trigger extracted from the 200WMA position at the right edge of chart (~65k), but since this is a moving average rather than a fixed price level, the trigger is approximate and validation flags this as NOT PASS.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $65,000 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $65,000 |
| Trigger operator | Acceptance Below |
| Conditional operator | Category D — Bidding / Wick / Liquidity Grab (Reversal UP) |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Feb 12, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.81composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.74 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.88 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 1.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.74 |
| Max Favorable Move | +27.5% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −3.8% |
| Candles evaluated | 8641 · 1w |
| Eval window | Feb 12, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → May 13, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $86,975 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: truetrigger_p0_gap_pct: 25.3trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct: 25.3
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2489.72,
"mfe": 17850,
"mqs": 0.738624,
"ocs": 0.877593,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-05-06 11:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.620469,
"sigma_d": 0.02240006,
"eval_end": "2026-05-13 00:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.738624,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 62820.77,
"eval_start": "2026-02-12 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 65000,
"trigger_ts": "2026-02-12 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {
"trigger_p0_gap_pct": 25.3,
"trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct": 25.3
},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.341796,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.809172,
"activation_price": 65000,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 8641,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.204662,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 14,
"trigger_candle_index": 11,
"aggregated_candles_count": 14,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 14,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 14
} 