@ColinTcrypto

Last cycle, $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200-week moving average. This cycle (so far), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks. Many point to the 200-week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone. The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly. Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average. Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200-week MA. Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess). Bear market patience is a marathon-- not a sprint.

$BTC - Pretty straightforward chart. Many wanted to overcomplicate this with"this time is different", but bitcoin is just doing the same thing it always does in bear markets. It breaks down. And it definitely takes longer than 4 months (Oct->Feb $60k), despite the hopium to want otherwise. I think it's more likely than many still want to admit that we see lower lows this year.

Bitcoin is nearing an interesting spot on the chart. It's the intersection of 2 trend lines and one horizontal resistance level. As such, I give $BTC a 50% chance of finding a local top around this intersection spot, but if it happens to break above the channel, then it probably moves a good deal higher, perhaps finding a local top around the $84k-$86k zone (where the most immediate and signficant horizontal resistance can be found from the previous consolidation range). As such, I'm spacing out my next profit taking (10% of my portfolio) in two traunches-- half of my sells just under $80k and the other half around $84k. I am obviously still of the belief that this is a relief rally and we'll see a revisit of $60k's range (or lower) later this year. I notice in the comments section of my recent posts that quite a few of you disagree that we are in a relief rally. These individuals strongly believe we are in a bull run, and that "this time is different" for all sorts of various reasons and charts. I disagree, but that's ok and I'm not going to attack anybody for differing views (after all, there's always a chance I am wrong, as any analyst could be with any market view at any time). So, just know that I respect your choice to disagree with me, even if we don't see eye to eye. All I ask is that you keep is civil in the discussion. And at least I have the cajones to speak my mind. Whether I end up being right or wrong, that alone should be worth something.