@ColinTcrypto

Last cycle, $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200-week moving average. This cycle (so far), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks. Many point to the 200-week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone. The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly. Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average. Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200-week MA. Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess). Bear market patience is a marathon-- not a sprint.

$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end. We are getting closer. I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory. I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish. And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in: You've been telling me that this entire cycle. The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average (white line) as well as the downtrending trend line (dotted white line) that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence. I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.

$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end. We are getting closer. I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory. I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish. And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in: You've been telling me that this entire cycle. The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average as well as the downtrending trend line that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence. I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.

$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end. We are getting closer. I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory. I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish.