Call Audit

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Passport #149240 · Jul 10, 2026 · 12:01 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@ColinTcrypto

Jul 10, 2026 · 12:01 UTC

$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end. We are getting closer. I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory. I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish. And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in: You've been telling me that this entire cycle. The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average (white line) as well as the downtrending trend line (dotted white line) that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence. I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	30 days · Medium Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Forecaster explicitly states 'I personally think we go lower' and expects 'at least one more decent-sized shakeout' before bottoming, clearly bearish. No specific price targets given — 200-day MA and trendline are mentioned as evidence criteria for changing view, not as price destinations. 'I think' and 'personally think' indicate mild hedge rather than declarative.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC goes lower (one more shakeout before bottoming). No outcome-anchored horizon phrase; 'patiently waiting' is Signal F language but the primary framing is a bottom-call/trend-reversal thesis (Signal B2, base 30). No urgency or macro payoff cues to modulate → base 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$64,542
Target	—
Duration	30 days · Medium Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	30
Duration used in scoring	30

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$64,542
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 150.35,
  "mfe": 886.48,
  "mqs": 0.64491,
  "ocs": 0.854991,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-10 20:30:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.062789,
  "sigma_d": 0.02232071,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-11 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.64491,
  "max_close": 64542.48,
  "min_close": 63732.25,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-10 12:01:23+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 30,
  "mew_days_used": 30,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.035384,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.640672,
  "activation_price": 64542.48,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 70,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.013265,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 2,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 2,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}