Call Audit

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Passport #150213 · Jul 11, 2026 · 17:38 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@ColinTcrypto

Jul 11, 2026 · 17:38 UTC

Last cycle, $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200-week moving average. This cycle (so far), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks. Many point to the 200-week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone. The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly. Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average. Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200-week MA. Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess). Bear market patience is a marathon-- not a sprint.

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	112 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Forecaster expects further downside toward the 300-week MA and a cycle low around October, indicating a down call. No explicit price target is given (300-week MA level not stated numerically). Language like 'looks to me' and 'educated guess' = mild hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC cycle low. 'Likeliest to be within a month of October' is bound to the outcome. D = 2026-07-11; Oct 31, 2026 − Jul 11, 2026 = 112 days.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$64,360
Target	—
Duration	112 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	112
Duration used in scoring	112

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$64,360
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 104.32,
  "mfe": 657.35,
  "mqs": 0.58212,
  "ocs": 0.863038,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-12 00:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.024193,
  "sigma_d": 0.02151523,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-12 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.58212,
  "max_close": 64415.05,
  "min_close": 63782,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-11 17:38:46+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 112,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.87256,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.617338,
  "activation_price": 64359.51,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 48,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.011705,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}