@decodejar
“@decodejar sits at 47.3% accuracy across 237 calls, focusing heavily on BTC and emerging alts like TAO and SUI with a strong bullish lean (82% long calls). Their clearest edge is in short-term calls, where they hit 58.2% accuracy, particularly through Break/Pump and Wick/Liquidity grab setups that target momentum and market structure plays.”
Score Breakdown
| CallRank Score | Move · Path · Time | Scored | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL-TIME | 47% | 0.61 · 0.45 · 0.44 | 255 |
| YTD | 45% | 0.56 · 0.45 · 0.43 | 76 |
| 30D | — | — | 0 |
CallRank Score by Duration
Short term58% 22 calls
Medium term45% 133 calls
Long term48% 100 calls
CallRank Score · Last 12 Months
Asset Breakdown — Top 5
| Asset | CallRank Score | Calls | 🟢 Bull · 🔴 Bear |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 49% | 197 | 156 · 41 |
| TAO | 43% | 26 | 25 · 1 |
| ETH | 38% | 12 | 9 · 3 |
| SUI | 52% | 8 | 8 · 0 |
| ME | 35% | 4 | 4 · 0 |
Live Calls Summary · By Horizon
@decodejar's active forecasts grouped by horizon and asset. L = Long, S = Short, number = open call count.
Active assets for this forecaster:
| No assets selected | |
|---|---|
| ST | — |
| MT | — |
| LT | — |
ST = Short term · MT = Medium term · LT = Long term
Active Calls · 12 Live
DE
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Metals breaking out, stocks breaking out. This combination has not been kind to crypto so far, so we're either heading into some kind of epic blow off top, or the bottom on Bitcoin is still not in.
But, I've been hearing wave 5 and blow off top a lot over the years, in the past I may even have been party to these suggestions, but it never plays out. So either this time is actually different, or people are getting ahead of themselves, again.
To be fair, including to my own calls, whilst I was looking for lower prices from Nov last year, in Feb I thought a mid-cycle reversal 'could' play out due to the macro setup.
It didn't, egg on my face, but that was six months ago, and I've been favouring the downward trend since, looking strictly for a confirmation of reversal before I call it.
I've still got one eye on the macro though, and I see it still lining up. I see the ISM rising further and I see the breakout on Copper/Gold. If history has a say, then it's the right backdrop.
However, what I don't see is Bitcoin reacting to this setup. Copper/Gold and the ISM broke out six months ago and Bitcoin still has not responded. So it makes sense to focus on price.
The downtrend is still intact, and Bitcoin needs to clear 66.7k 'at least' before any meaningful reversal can occur. Nice potential inverted head and shoulders or maybe cup and handle, but nothing confirmed yet.
Ten months down from the highs, we are almost certainly close, but I'm not putting a date on it and it could run longer than feels comfortable. Bitcoin needs to prove the bottom is in, and that level for me today is 74k, otherwise I still favour the trend and another leg down towards 50k.
If Bitcoin continues to do nothing for another couple of months, and macro continues to look good, the setup on the other side will be a full macro wave 3, not any sort of mid-cycle or late mid-cycle final rally.
The only thing to do is DCA and wait.
PENDING TRIGGER
DE
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Crypto Twitter is all the same stuff rn. "Bitcoin is in a macro accumulation zone". Yes, we know, we've been saying it since the February lows. 60k down to 50k is the zone, imo. There are no guarantees, but if history repeats, that is where the bottom forms, whether already in or not. Then dominance falls, altcoins outperform, and number goes up. Everything is cyclical, you've just got to wait!
PENDING TRIGGER
DE
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Crypto Twitter is all the same stuff rn. "Bitcoin is in a macro accumulation zone". Yes, we know, we've been saying it since the February lows. 60k down to 50k is the zone, imo. There are no guarantees, but if history repeats, that is where the bottom forms, whether already in or not. Then dominance falls, altcoins outperform, and number goes up. Everything is cyclical, you've got to wait!
PENDING TRIGGER
DE
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I've advocated for buying the February lows, and I'm advocating for buying this dip too. If Bitcoin goes lower, I think anywhere down to approximately 50k is possible, and I would advocate for buying there too. The 50-65k range will make good long term buys, especially for people adding to existing Bitcoin stacks. Everyone wants to buy the dip, but when it comes they wait to buy a bigger one. The current double bottom formation is convincing, and a possibility, but while I think the 50s will likely come, I'm not so sure there will be opportunity lower. My message has been, and will continue to be, to take advantage of all major lows for the whole year until a new major uptrend is established.
Max Favorable +6.4%Max Adverse −8.6%ACTIVE
DE
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Because the recent Bitcoin cycle was not a broad crypto cycle, it didn't create the large numbers of altcoin bag holders we usually see, at least not to the levels we saw in 2018 and 2022. Perhaps this is why we are seeing some altcoins shrugging off Bitcoin's recent downward trajectory.
The reasons for the lack of breadth were twofold, in my opinion: continued fallout and distrust in the space after FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows, Voyager, and Terraform all collapsed, compounded by persistent poor macro conditions that we can observe in many indicators.
So while the tourists are over in stocks buying loss-making AI startups with ridiculous valuations, I suspect that those still in crypto today have probably been here before.
In 2022, many crypto projects bottomed in June and did not make lower lows with Bitcoin later that year. This could be a similar situation. With macro slowly picking up, and after eight months of downside, now is not the time to be leaving.
Max Favorable +0.6%Max Adverse −13.9%ACTIVE
Scored Calls · Full Audit Trail
DE
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Still max bullish on TAO. Continues to hold above its Feb lows and show relative strength in the market, while many other altcoins are significantly lower. The force is strong with Bittensor. https://t.co/lmZLYIURiB
Max Favorable +1.9%Max Adverse −0.4%Opportunity 0.65Time 1.00Magnitude 0.65Score 0.64
DE
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10 months down, and sentiment feels a lot like it should. Bitmex and Bitmart shutdown. Strategy selling 1,638 BTC with an average price at the 200 week sma. Crypto folk clinging to the CLARITY Act narrative for redemption. And then there's CLOWNCARD, the biggest direct loss for hardworking Bitcoiners ever; scammed by their own community's products. You couldn't ask for too much more before the bottom is in on Bitcoin.
Max Favorable +1.0%Max Adverse −0.2%Opportunity 0.68Time 1.00Magnitude 0.68Score 0.64
DE
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Some thoughts. Bitcoin deserves some upside here, sentiment has been overly bearish for weeks. Altcoins should do pretty well too. Macro low, unconfirmed. Perfect 0.618 retracement from the high into a bounce seems mechanical, not seller exhaustion, yet. Business cycle positioning suggests late-cycle pump, or early macro low, but ultimately price is the primary read. Some onchain bottom indicators yet to fire, but less weight as many didn't call the top either. On-chain and business cycle provide additional context, but price is structurally still in a downtrend until some levels are reclaimed. 66 to start, then ~73. Time will tell.
Max Favorable +0.2%Max Adverse −3.6%Opportunity 0.16Time 0.00Magnitude 0.16Score 0.05
DE
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More than enough. Higher for Bitcoin! https://t.co/GZ3oySzLJw
Max Favorable +0.2%Max Adverse −3.6%Opportunity 0.14Time 0.00Magnitude 0.14Score 0.05
DE
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Nine months later and 2022 comparisons are everywhere; it's the closest and most recent example, but there are two things worth considering.
Not everyone is buying Bitcoin. In June 2022, Bitcoin closed below the weekly 200 sma, but at the same time many Altcoins bottomed. Ethereum, Cardano, Litecoin, Binance Smart Chain and others made their macro cycle low three months before Bitcoin, a buying opportunity for investors who were interested in these networks.
The final 2022 low set by Bitcoin was due to the collapse of FTX in November and the contagion that spread to BTC-heavy lenders like BlockFi and Genesis. Bitcoin was hit uniquely hard during this event because it was the primary asset sold off in an attempt to prevent insolvency. It was also the only time in Bitcoin's history we have seen it fall significantly below its 200 week sma.
Bitcoin at 60k, with dips into the 50s, continues to look like strong support, and I think that in time this area will prove to be the bottom, and look obvious with hindsight.
Max Favorable +10.8%Max Adverse −4.4%Opportunity 0.57Time 0.90Magnitude 0.57Score 0.66