Passport #142429 · Jun 29, 2026 · 22:20 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
DE@decodejar
Jun 29, 2026 · 22:20 UTC
Nine months later and 2022 comparisons are everywhere; it's the closest and most recent example, but there are two things worth considering.
Not everyone is buying Bitcoin. In June 2022, Bitcoin closed below the weekly 200 sma, but at the same time many Altcoins bottomed. Ethereum, Cardano, Litecoin, Binance Smart Chain and others made their macro cycle low three months before Bitcoin, a buying opportunity for investors who were interested in these networks.
The final 2022 low set by Bitcoin was due to the collapse of FTX in November and the contagion that spread to BTC-heavy lenders like BlockFi and Genesis. Bitcoin was hit uniquely hard during this event because it was the primary asset sold off in an attempt to prevent insolvency. It was also the only time in Bitcoin's history we have seen it fall significantly below its 200 week sma.
Bitcoin at 60k, with dips into the 50s, continues to look like strong support, and I think that in time this area will prove to be the bottom, and look obvious with hindsight.
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster states 60k with dips into 50s will prove to be the bottom, implying an up call from current support. No upside price target is given. 50k/60k are support/bottom references, not destination targets. 'I think...in time' = mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottom is in at 60k/50s range and price recovers upward. 'In time' is vague forward language with no explicit horizon bound to the outcome. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires clearly enough to override; the bottom-call framing (Signal B2) is present but paired with 'in time' and 'with hindsight' suggesting a longer-horizon thesis — however no macro/cycle language elevates to 60. DEFAULT 30 applied.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2644.82,
"mfe": 6511.14,
"mqs": 0.569599,
"ocs": 0.711137,
"tif": 0.903226,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-21 14:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.456669,
"sigma_d": 0.02745293,
"eval_end": "2026-07-29 22:20:01+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.569599,
"max_close": 66944.4,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-29 22:20:01+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.843037,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.660158,
"activation_price": 60445.01,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2880,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.127776,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 31,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 31,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 28,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}