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Passport #85044 · Jun 3, 2026 · 05:08 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
Because the recent Bitcoin cycle was not a broad crypto cycle, it didn't create the large numbers of altcoin bag holders we usually see, at least not to the levels we saw in 2018 and 2022. Perhaps this is why we are seeing some altcoins shrugging off Bitcoin's recent downward trajectory.
The reasons for the lack of breadth were twofold, in my opinion: continued fallout and distrust in the space after FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows, Voyager, and Terraform all collapsed, compounded by persistent poor macro conditions that we can observe in many indicators.
So while the tourists are over in stocks buying loss-making AI startups with ridiculous valuations, I suspect that those still in crypto today have probably been here before.
In 2022, many crypto projects bottomed in June and did not make lower lows with Bitcoin later that year. This could be a similar situation. With macro slowly picking up, and after eight months of downside, now is not the time to be leaving.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | — |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
A single drawn arrow extends from the recent price area upward and to the right into empty future chart space, indicating a one-sided bullish forecast. Tier 1 directional up.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $67,136 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 180 |
| Duration used in scoring | 180 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 4D |
| Merge source | chart_only |
| Direction source | chart |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | — |
| Spot price at post | $67,136 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_1_complex_path: path=4D
Merge Flags
orphan_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 9335.8,
"mfe": 380.01,
"mqs": 0.422014,
"ocs": 0.039113,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-03 06:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.010577,
"sigma_d": 0.02065031,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.422014,
"max_close": 67341.5,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-03 05:08:39+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 180,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.548205,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.117926,
"activation_price": 67135.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2978,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010325,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 2,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 2,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}