@astronomer_zero

$btc longs - why I haven't shorted in weeks and still don't want to short. When do we go for our sixth win in a row? The story of 66k. The TPO outlook (the only $btc chart you need right now) Alright posted a recap of five wins in a row recently. Time to start shaping the plan and outlook for our sixth win in a row (if given), as it have a minor chance of offering itself, as well as give a brief update on what to do with win 4 and win 5 (already locked in), where we aim for optimal tail gains (remainders we are holding). Spoilers, nothing of the gameplan has changed, really (expect 66k, longs only, no shorts yet, and a bottom forming). So to keep it fresh, I am giving a refreshing update here with a quick TPO outlook. Not a chart I often post or share but it gives a clean perspective on the trades I took recently, and why I am still just waiting and holding my longs. I'll summarize in two messages what I am doing and why: Message 1: I am holding my existing longs from 59.5k and 61.8k, to target our beloved and final target of 66k. As announced, have been stubborn on taking any partials further beyond locking in the W on each as I am highly confident in the level. If you're new to my page, it's the target I have been calling for for weeks now. No doubt my core followers are tired of hearing it by now. It has been programmed and it still is programmed, it is the target and I repeat the message I said when we were below 60k: I still believe we will see it without making any new lows. We are a lot closer now, so it looks a lot better now, but we still have ways of resistance to go. Message 2: I am not adding exposure unless we take out the poor lows in the 61-62k area first. Why? Because we are already strongly exposed. So adding anything more is the "bet big area". And with poor lows below and already exposed decently long, there is no point in adding any more here. So, that's not me saying "we will see them, we will see sub 61k guaranteed". In an uptrend, and especially with a level of high confidence I have in mind, 66k, I do not think we see it guaranteed. Why do you think I went long from 59.5k and 61.8k and held large chunks of my position despite the poor lows forming in the process? And why do you think I am not shorting towards that level? It's mindless, it's pointless, it's gambling and throwing money away. It is an entry in an environment you should already be heavily exposed long if you followed my calls, it is not an exit. It's because when my 66k level is activated, and the uptrend emerges, they are not a necessity to get taken out. But if they get taken out, then we reach into "bet big" territory. And thus I will bet big for a sixth long in the streak, especially if the poor highs have not been taken out yet. And that's exactly when long VI will be born. Summary of gameplan So the summary is simple: the bias on the daily has been and still remains bullish until at least 66k (for beyond, I will update you once we hit it, let's get paid on this long first). The longs we took are the actions towards achieving 66k and get paid substantially on it. To get paid even more and bet big, I want to see 61k taken out and the H12 POI get reached (red box). Otherwise, simply take out 66k and take profits, leaving 10% runners on each trade active (since my weekly bias is bullish - runners are in lockstep with my weekly bias). And so where we are now, no actions need to be taken. My biases summarized: ➡️Weekly bias: bullish. I believe the 60k region is the bottom and the bears expecting sub 50k or lower are wrong. ➡️Daily bias: bullish. I expect 66k without seeing new lows. 66k is above us, price moves up, not down and should be traded long when times are opportune ➡️Hourly: expecting the range to continue. We are a weekend after a bullish leg up in macro bottom territory, so price action should be expected slow. On top, going below 61k is likely what will bounce price back higher, i.e. continuing the hourly range. That is my gameplan, and frankly, has been for a long time with the new adjustment the high conviction long I will ad when we take out 61k (no guarantees). And I will follow this plan with delusional confidence, patience and persistence until proven wrong. (Where every entry, exit and change in plan will be called live by the way) Discipline, is what makes the dream of trading work. The dream of endless extraction of money for little to no work, out of thin air, filled with a dose of dopamine and thrill every time it works out. And I believe this gameplan will work out yet again.

$btc recap 7 Trades, 2 BE, 5 Wins ✅ All called live 2 longs still open Alright, it's been a pretty good start of the summer so far. With 7 trades managed, 5 wins scored and 2 BE's. 1 BE being a trim + SL, ending up with nothing and 1 fumble (on the long Yesterday). the remainder of the two longs still running. Everything is called live. I also have put the bias on the screen and the main confluence this bias is attributed to, carrying the idea of my trade. With the first stretch bullish - 7.12% bounce post-long (aggressive bottom call thesis). Second bias: bearish - FOMC reversal Third bias: bullish - expecting 66k. Still holding long VI and long V for 66k. How I count my wins Repeating this for the ones who are new since my counting has a deliberate philosophy: 0.5 RR - 1.2 RR is a small win. 1.2 RR - 2 RR is a normal win 2 RR+ is a big win. < 0.5 RR is a BE < -0.1 RR is a loss With my philosophy, BE trades don't count as trades that end the streak. This keeps mental momentum going. Wins both small and large count as wins. They ultimately average out into solid wins. Every trade was shared and taken in real time on my timeline (all you have to do is scroll down). And the main ideas, what I use and confluences as to why I took the trades are also shared. Enjoy. My aim is to keep you on the right side of the market. With my daily bias on point most of the time. Weekly bias? Still loading, we will see if my bottom call thesis is correct, only months from now.

$btc My macro bottom call, in one trade Just a quick one because despite some explanation there are still some (new) people confused as to why I still hold on to the 60k level as my "bottom call level". The answer is quite simply the difference between actual trading and engagement farming. Where the engagement farmer tries to talk about the bottom with repeated posts of vague and broad levels and numbers, with the sheer goal of trying to be right ("we will rally", "we will go higher from here", "the low is forming", "I closed my shorts" etc etc). Just to be able to tell you "I told you so", without any actual positions mentioned or taken. X is a lot about engagement farming, it after all is what generates traffic, all power to the engagement farmer. But since we aim to trade this market optimally, that is not of our interest. So let's not identify ourselves with that. Let's not try to aim to "call the 60k bottom perfectly" and then morph posts in ways that may look good after the fact, just trying to be right and nothing else, whilst deleting old wrong tweets and what not. Let's just treat this bottom call like any other call, a proper live call with realistic (but bold) expectations. The same way a proper trade works, which I framed so on the chart below. 60k is my estimate, 50k is where I no longer believe my bottom call is correct, and new ath's is where I make money. That's 6.5+ in "loss-to-gain" ratio, a large amount. It is indeed a bold and aggressive call, made since Feb. Framing it like this is how actual gains come to fruition, especially when only a small minority believes in it, sticks to it and aligns their capital with it. This is of course not a trade I took in the literal sense, this is a virtual trade. No one taking these markets seriously takes a long trade like this, you would lose a third of the gains in funding. It merely represents my spot plan, and weekly bottom bias (different to weekly bias, weekly bias can incorporate countertrend rallies along the way). Locally, things can change, I can call this plan off earlier for good reasons, or hold through slightly longer for more risk, although also only for very good reason only. So with this, all doubts and unclarity of how I view and go about a live bottom call, are lifted. The goal is not to call the bottom in an aggressively down trending market to "scalp" a 100x long on that. Again you lose most profits in funding so there is no real added value in that. So although it looks pretty, there is no need to nail a bottom perfectly to make money consistently. In reality, it only helps to create engagement and morph expectations. Reality check in place, plan in place and the trades continue.

$btc Next steps with current trades Monitoring local bitcoin price action further. After a long time, you have seen me finally flip bullish, and we wasted no time as Yesterday, we built a clear cut idea of a long for the first time in a long time. That idea turned into action which has now turned into a nice and clear trim at 1.2RR at 73.7k, which we detected as clear local liquidity resorption in live time and we marked as likely the top of the low timeframe range at least. We are still ranging between that and the entry level of the long, 73k. With the trade now risk free and the 700$ "guaranteed" signature caught, any move lower and deeper into the zone is where I am interested to long again. I am also still holding the shorts from 82.3k. Looking to TP the (time-based/range-based) finalisation of this downtrend which I believe will stop exactly into the purple zone, I am still looking for an optimal TP. Acceptance above 74.2k, is also what I see as early confirmation of the large move up we are planning, and is what I will use to aggressively close the last 10% of the 82.3k shorts (mind you, they would be up 15RR plus so even 10% is not worth losing to an uptrend especially when I am bullish), acceptance is very key. Now I hear you. "Acceptance above", is as dubious as a house with no doors. That's why I prefer acceptance level on a wick basis whenever possible (such as our 2450 level on each, never reached, price dropped, clean bias level). This level is not an acceptance level with a wick basis, so how to frame it instead? Let's talk about it shortly because framing this is key to avoid confusion and execution anxiety, and it's never done in enough detail on X. It's also hard to explain the full mechanics without showing the full step-by-step evaluation process. The good news is, the process is always the same. And there is a relatively new concept I have developed which is acceptance based on order book aggression. For the ones curious, try mapping out local directional order book depth aggression on a chart, and filter out the times it persists directionally with a 3:1 factor for 1 exact candle on the minute chart, above an acceptance level. You'll see it (almost) never fails. So takes a bit of work and a lot of back-testing, but the same method can be used again and again and again. Any-who, with no further detail, I believe the classic way is also still quite decent: high OI, high delta, high volume and some dubious interpretation "to taste". A bit more dubious, a bit more indicators and tabs open, but it still works reasonably. So the 74.2k level is key for me, acceptance above means the market sends fully to 76k, and because of my plan and high timeframe view, should accept us above 76k too after some testing, which means 80k's and yearly highs imo, and a very good look of this bottom consolidation, very thin liquidity above and we can start chatting about 100k. Ideally, with ranging locally first (creating doubt but also filling those voids). But without jumping the gun, we're here for now, and are just building longs on the basis of our plan. In all other cases, we IMO are still in the consolidation stages of our purple zone, the zone I think we indeed bottom, and we should actively trim longs as soon as we get our $700 move, and re-long if revisited lower, whilst keeping shorts open (if you still hold them per instruction, if not, that's okay). Indeed respecting how we are ranging between our entry level of 73k and 73.7k, our exact trim level, likely the local low timeframe top. To summarize, we are in a bottoming process, still looking to break local consolidation, which we marked as locally topped at 73.7k with a key trim, But, we start trading longs, while we look for an optimal TP on the final short, as the final footsteps in the sand remaining from all the downtrend trading we did off the 82.3k high, before the bullish storm finally blows them all away. Closing off all the short business, and transitioning into long business. The way I aim to trade key reversals. NFA.