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Passport #142335 · Jun 29, 2026 · 11:17 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
AS@astronomer_zero
Jun 29, 2026 · 11:17 UTC
$btc
Range -> Triangle
Is how I believe we are moving at the moment. Announced the range almost a full week ago, which has been responsive for our current price action quite clearly.
Within the range, we have been compressing the width of the swings into a triangle.
Very common during the end of important closes (such as 6M closes, coming up).
Currently the high of the triangle, we can expect a local move down.
Certainly means we need to be patient with our longs. But the answer is simple, we just are patient, where 0.5x leverage allows us to do so.
The resolution is typically a fake-out either side followed by the real move. And given my bullish bias, I would want and expect a fake-out to the downside, before the genuine move up.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 5 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Per Stage 2 guidance, only the first leg (local move down/fake-out to downside) is scored as directional. Author states 'we can expect a local move down' — mild hedge with no numeric target provided. The subsequent bullish move lacks a numeric reversal point and is not scored here.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC moves down locally (the fake-out to the downside). No explicit horizon is attached to this outcome. The post mentions patience and a 6M close context, but 'patient with our longs' is positioning language and '6M closes' is a catalyst/trigger frame, not an outcome horizon. The local move down is framed as a short-term fake-out before the real move, suggesting a brief directional move — Signal B (short-term bounce/reversal) at base 14 fits best, with no tiebreaker cues to modulate.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $59,991 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 5 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.47composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.70 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.42 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.36 |
| Magnitude | 0.70 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.7% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −5.0% |
| Candles evaluated | 480 · 2h |
| Eval window | Jun 29, 2026 · 11:17 UTC → Jul 4, 2026 · 11:17 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 5 |
| Duration used in scoring | 5 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $59,991 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2989.26,
"mfe": 2190.41,
"mqs": 0.697875,
"ocs": 0.422886,
"tif": 0.360656,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.387966,
"sigma_d": 0.02425871,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 11:17:53+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.697875,
"max_close": 62827.73,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-29 11:17:53+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 5,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.196914,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.467346,
"activation_price": 59990.6,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 480,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.030506,
"scoring_candle_tf": "2h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 61,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 61,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 22,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 61
} 