When Bitfinex $Bitcoin longs start ramping up, usually a massive upside follows in the upcoming months until they get closed.
They keep going up.
Thoughts? https://t.co/J9Bh9JeubN
BTCActivation price $77,553.46Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Long
Max Favorable +0.8%Max Adverse −25.5%Opportunity 0.35Time 0.00Magnitude 0.35Score 0.10
The 10/10th changed everything and the crime lords of this space & the powers that be has manipulated the prices of $ETH & the entire space.
It is plain & visible out there for you to see and the timing couldn't be more clear.
10/10th is literally where the divergence happens.
$ETH should be trading at 7000$.
And they will not let it go up, until they are fully positioned.
"I'm guessing that you are now net -long- and it is in your interest to accurately price my swaps."
ETHActivation price $2,133.07Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Mid
Max Favorable +1.1%Max Adverse −29.4%Opportunity 0.48Time 0.03Magnitude 0.48Score 0.15
To my view the crypto market has clearly capitulated on Feb 6th, following with probably one of the most illiquid and boring periods in its history to this day.
The market clearly ran out of sellers during that period amidst the equities sell-off, mooning oil prices & US-Iran war news & other stuff, failing to move prices lower.
And anyone who wanted to leave the space has already done so & sold during this period. The remainder are people that will never leave.
We have ranged since then & lots of alts attempted a breakout last week again however it failed to hold & rejected over the weekend. So any immediate recovery seems out of reach now.
Using $XRP here as an example but situation is similar across the board.
The next logical outcome is that we won't recover as quickly just yet but also likely won't fall much further either with the above context.
Best the MMs can give you is likely the next 30 days of range? Crab for the win.
Short term bearish on the price but HTF bullish bias remains.
Good news is that the space, or in a better word certain quality projects & teams are now extremely undavalued compared to its trad-fi peers & will present massive assymetric opportunity once the risk conditions improves for the space. Time is the real question here.
I understand this post won't appeal to either bears nor bulls much but it is the reality of the current market in a broader look from my POV.
$BTC likely to remain strong but that is a category of its own

XRPActivation price $1.22Direction LongType ConditionalTrigger Sweep Below (Reversal Up) 1.22Timeframe Mid
Max Favorable +6.0%Max Adverse −17.3%Opportunity 0.56Time 0.03Magnitude 0.56Score 0.28
One of the best risk-on signals is $Copper leading & outperforming
It has just broken out of a two decade long channel/range, successfully retested it & now hitting new ATHs
It has also been outperforming $Gold too for 3 months straight
Historically, this has caused bull runs in crypto and both $BTC & $ETH did thousands of precent during those times
Why fade this? Ego?
ETHActivation price $2,321.56Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Long
Max Favorable +0.1%Max Adverse −35.1%Opportunity 0.05Time 0.00Magnitude 0.05Score 0.01
One of the best risk-on signals is $Copper leading & outperforming
It has just broken out of a two decade long channel/range, successfully retested it & now hitting new ATHs
It has also been outperforming $Gold too for 3 months straight
Historically, this has caused bull runs in crypto and both $BTC & $ETH did thousands of precent during those times
Why fade this? Ego?
BTCActivation price $81,240.01Direction LongType DirectionalTimeframe Long
Max Favorable +1.0%Max Adverse −28.9%Opportunity 0.31Time 0.00Magnitude 0.31Score 0.09