Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 209 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster declaratively states Q3-Q4 will be the bottom in Bitcoin's halving cycle, implying a downward move to a cycle low. No specific price targets are stated. 'Whether you like it or not' reinforces declarative commitment.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms in Q3-Q4. 'Q3-Q4' is bound to the outcome (the cycle bottom). D = 2026-06-05; Q4 ends Dec 31, 2026; days(2026-06-05 → 2026-12-31) = 209 days.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5176.15,
"mfe": 4315.81,
"mqs": 0.47273,
"ocs": 0.454681,
"tif": 0.5,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.119918,
"sigma_d": 0.0214989,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.47273,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-05 13:21:07+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 209,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.640042,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.386832,
"activation_price": 62116,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2753,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.108555,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 2,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 2,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}