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Passport #155141 · Jul 16, 2026 · 13:02 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
TI@timeless_crypto
Jul 16, 2026 · 13:02 UTC
Context:
#BTC had a lovely rotation into Q1 VAL confluent with Q2 VAL (there is enough reason to see this as a zone per my book)
If we can sustain price above here I think we can look north towards the 70s (Q2 VWAP)
However, a failure to hold here opens up 62500 and 61 k as interim targets to gage bid side reaction and presence of buyers
#BTC
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $64,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Above |
AI Reasoning
Claim 1: 'Sustain price above here' is a hold trigger, but no explicit numeric level is stated (refers to Q1/Q2 VAL zone). Target 'the 70s' is a decade range interpreted as 70000-79000, though ambiguous. Hedged with 'I think'.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC moves up toward the 70s (Q2 VWAP). No horizon phrase is bound to this outcome; 'Q2 VWAP' is a price level reference, not a calendar deadline. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1: BTCUSD identified top-right, daily timeframe inferred from axis (dates 2-18 spanning ~16 days of candles). Gate 2: Asset matches BTC. Gate 3: Chart shows explicit VAL levels (Previous 63591.98, Developing 61311.02) drawn as horizontal dotted lines — these represent the 'here' being defended per the post's hold trigger. Gate 4: Up direction consistent with holding above VAL support. Selected Previous VAL (63591.98) as the trigger since it is the closest defended level at current price, but NOT PASS due to ambiguity with Developing VAL.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $64,705 |
| Target | $70,000 – $79,000 |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $64,000 |
| Trigger operator | Break Above |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.50composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.60 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.51 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.58 |
| Magnitude | 0.60 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.5% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −3.3% |
| Candles evaluated | 673 · 4h |
| Eval window | Jul 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC → Jul 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 7 |
| Duration used in scoring | 7 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,085 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: post_target_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2167.17,
"mfe": 2251.42,
"mqs": 0.598351,
"ocs": 0.509534,
"tif": 0.581395,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-21 14:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.318283,
"sigma_d": 0.01718488,
"eval_end": "2026-07-23 16:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.598351,
"max_close": 66944.4,
"min_close": 62568.18,
"eval_start": "2026-07-16 16:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 64704.73,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-16 16:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 7,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.912177,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.501891,
"activation_price": 64704.73,
"dir_target_score": 0.422957,
"candles_evaluated": 673,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.038145,
"scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": 0,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 25,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
} 
