← Back to @timeless_cryptoCall Audit
Every scored call is fully auditable
Passport #155140 · Jul 16, 2026 · 13:01 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
TI@timeless_crypto
Jul 16, 2026 · 13:01 UTC
Context:
#BTC had a lovely rotation into Q1 VAL confluent with Q2 VAL (there is enough reason to see this as a zone per my book)
If we can sustain price above here I think we can look north towards the 70s (Q2 VWAP)
However, a failure to hold here open up 62500 and 61 k
#BTC
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $64,500 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
Claim 2: 'Failure to hold here' is a break-below condition at the same unstated zone; trigger is null. Targets are 62500 and 61000 as downside destinations.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines to 62500/61k. No horizon phrase is bound to this outcome — 'failure to hold here' is the trigger, not a timeframe. No §4 signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1 passed: BTCUSD identified; timeframe not visible in the chart toolbar. Gate 2 passed: chart asset matches Stage 3 BTC. Gate 3 passed: horizontal dotted lines labeled 'Q1 2026 VAL' (~65,000) and 'Q2 2026 VAL' (~63,900) serve as reference/hold levels consistent with 'sustain above here' language. Gate 4 passed: an up-direction hold trigger at these VAL levels is consistent. Trigger extracted as 65,000 based on Q1 2026 VAL line — the upper of the two VAL levels which price would need to sustain above to progress toward the 70s. Confidence marked NOT PASS because it is ambiguous whether the trigger is the Q1 VAL (~65,000) or the Q2 VAL (~63,900), and 'here' in the post could reference either level.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $63,830 |
| Target | $61,000 – $62,500 |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $64,500 |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 17, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.34composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.79 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.29 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.09 |
| Magnitude | 0.79 |
| Max Favorable Move | +2.0% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −4.9% |
| Candles evaluated | 673 · 4h |
| Eval window | Jul 17, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jul 24, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 7 |
| Duration used in scoring | 7 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,085 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 3125.95,
"mfe": 1292.64,
"mqs": 0.786246,
"ocs": 0.292546,
"tif": 0.093023,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-17 14:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.189588,
"sigma_d": 0.01718488,
"eval_end": "2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00",
"end_close": 65096,
"magnitude": 0.786246,
"max_close": 66944.4,
"min_close": 62568.18,
"eval_start": "2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 63830.2,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"end_close_ts": "2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 7,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.542931,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.340351,
"activation_price": 63830.2,
"dir_target_score": 0.948745,
"candles_evaluated": 673,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.013125,
"scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": 2,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 4,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
} 
