← Back to @merlijntrader🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@merlijntrader's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts
Call Audit
Every scored call is fully auditable
Passport #179322 · Aug 8, 2026 · 09:00 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
YES, ONE MORE FLUSH IS COMING. NO, NOT TO $50K.
The 2022 bottom had a specific shape. Three lows underneath.
Three taps into resistance above. Then one last sweep that took out the previous low and ended it.
2026 has printed everything except that final sweep.
The mistake people make is assuming it has to be deep. In 2022 it wasn't. It cleared the low and turned.
Price is at $64,927. I'm expecting that sweep into $59K–$60K, not $20K lower.
Lose $58K on a weekly close and the whole structure is wrong.
The last flush isn't the crash. It's the receipt.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
First leg is a directional down move to the $59K-$60K sweep zone. 'YES, ONE MORE FLUSH IS COMING' and 'I'm expecting that sweep into $59K-$60K' establish declarative commitment to price traveling down to the reversal point.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC flushes to $59K–$60K. No explicit horizon on this outcome; 'weekly close' is an invalidation trigger (§0.5). No §4 signal fires cleanly for the downward sweep leg → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,007 |
| Target | $59,000 – $60,000 |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 60 |
| Duration used in scoring | 60 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3C->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $65,007 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 185.12,
"mfe": 83.42,
"mqs": 0.124582,
"ocs": 0.310643,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-08 12:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.004154,
"sigma_d": 0.01928902,
"eval_end": "2026-08-08 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 65021,
"magnitude": 0.124582,
"max_close": 65136.69,
"min_close": 64967.35,
"eval_start": "2026-08-08 09:00:01+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-08 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 60,
"mew_days_used": 60,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.133054,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.109845,
"activation_price": 65007.42,
"dir_target_score": 0.008002,
"candles_evaluated": 42,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.009645,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}