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Passport #152164 · Jul 13, 2026 · 08:02 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
ME@merlijntrader
Jul 13, 2026 · 08:02 UTC
BITCOIN IS DOWN 3% AS MARKETS OPEN TO A WAR.
The US hit Iran again this weekend.
Oil +4.25%. Nasdaq futures −1.24%. S&P −0.56%.
First session since the escalation.
Hold 63,000 and it's a shakeout. Lose it, oil runs the tape.
Watching: 63,000. https://t.co/Diy1kkO8Xe
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 1 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $63,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Hold Above |
AI Reasoning
Claim 1: 'Hold 63,000 and it's a shakeout' — 63k is a hold-trigger with bullish implication (shakeout = recovery up). No numeric target stated.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC holds 63,000 and the drop is a shakeout (bullish). No horizon phrase is bound to this outcome — 'Hold 63,000' is the trigger condition, not a temporal anchor. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires clearly → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $63,100 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 1 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $63,000 |
| Trigger operator | Hold Above |
| Conditional operator | Category A — Hold/Defend/Maintain/Support |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 13, 2026 · 08:30 UTC |
Scoring
0.14composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.29 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.14 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.06 |
| Magnitude | 0.29 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.3% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −2.0% |
| Candles evaluated | 97 · 15m |
| Eval window | Jul 13, 2026 · 08:30 UTC → Jul 14, 2026 · 08:30 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 1 |
| Duration used in scoring | 1 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $63,039 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1275.03,
"mfe": 202.88,
"mqs": 0.293095,
"ocs": 0.137275,
"tif": 0.061856,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-13 09:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.080439,
"sigma_d": 0.01853904,
"eval_end": "2026-07-14 08:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.293095,
"max_close": 63206.97,
"min_close": 61904.99,
"eval_start": "2026-07-13 08:30:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 63100,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-13 08:30:00+00:00",
"active_mode": true,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 1,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.346859,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.143166,
"activation_price": 63100,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 97,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.00927,
"scoring_candle_tf": "15m",
"tif_total_aggregated": 97,
"trigger_candle_index": 1,
"aggregated_candles_count": 97,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 6,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 97
} 