← Back to @merlijntraderCall Audit
Every scored call is fully auditable
Passport #151114 · Jul 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
ME@merlijntrader
Jul 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC
Everyone will call July's green candle the Bitcoin reversal.
2022 said the exact same thing.
Then September broke lower and the cycle bottom came weeks later.
Same fractal now. Same green July. Same setup for one final flush.
Bids stacked at $55K and $50K.
Placed for the last leg, not the first bounce.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 0 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call predicting a final flush lower, drawing a fractal parallel to 2022. Forecaster has bids stacked at $55K and $50K for the last leg down, so these are treated as the predicted destination range. Tone is declarative with no hedging language.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC flushes down to $55K–$50K. No explicit horizon attached to the outcome. The post references a 2022 fractal where 'the cycle bottom came weeks later' after a September breakdown — this is bottom-call / trend-reversal language paired with macro/cycle framing ('cycle bottom', 'last leg'), routing to Signal B2 with ↑ to 60 for macro/cycle framing.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,866 |
| Target | $50,000 – $55,000 |
| Duration | 0 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.05composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.06 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.09 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.04 |
| Magnitude | 0.06 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 25 · 1m |
| Eval window | Jul 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC → Jul 12, 2026 · 17:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 0 |
| Duration used in scoring | 0 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $63,866 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 424.35,
"mfe": 39.75,
"mqs": 0.060023,
"ocs": 0.08565,
"tif": 0.04,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-12 11:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.0312,
"sigma_d": 0.02010973,
"eval_end": "2026-07-12 17:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.060023,
"max_close": 64223.36,
"min_close": 63848.01,
"eval_start": "2026-07-12 11:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 0.25,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.0619,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.054218,
"activation_price": 63865.76,
"dir_target_score": 0.002002,
"candles_evaluated": 25,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010055,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1m",
"tif_total_aggregated": 25,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 25,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 25
} 