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Passport #175078 · Aug 4, 2026 · 02:23 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
#BTC-S&P500 2022 Fractal
Pretty much played out identically
The top was July 2025 and the bottom would potentially have been July 2026
With the S&P500 closing in on new all time highs and BTC-S&P500 positioned for Bullish Divergence it would suggests its likely bottomed: https://t.co/VY8XN9vtLE
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post argues BTC has 'likely bottomed' based on fractal and bullish divergence analysis, implying upward direction. 'Likely' and 'would suggests' indicate mild hedge. No explicit price targets stated.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC has bottomed and moves up. No explicit horizon phrase is bound to the outcome. The fractal/divergence language is chart context, not an outcome timeframe. No bounce, urgency, or macro payoff language fires a specific signal → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,694 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $63,694 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 44.56,
"mfe": 550.25,
"mqs": 0.656061,
"ocs": 0.925085,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-04 05:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.039525,
"sigma_d": 0.01618868,
"eval_end": "2026-08-04 05:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.656061,
"max_close": 64054,
"min_close": 63690.18,
"eval_start": "2026-08-04 02:23:38+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.067292,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.655168,
"activation_price": 63693.56,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 12,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.008094,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}