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Passport #171178 · Jul 30, 2026 · 18:09 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
MA@matthewhyland_
Jul 30, 2026 · 18:09 UTC
#BTC
Macro-Risk Ratios are turning bullish as the Macro-Risk exits the Bear Market here in 2026 for the first times since 2012-2016-2020
All of the expansive moves for BTC have taken place in a Macro-Risk Bull Market
The real expansive bull run is very close to starting: https://t.co/n8Wr8Pl2Rp
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bullish directional call ('real expansive bull run is very close to starting', 'Macro-Risk Ratios turning bullish'). No specific price targets stated. Language is firm/declarative with no hedging.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC begins an expansive bull run. 'Very close to starting' has urgency register but the claim is explicitly a macro/cycle statement ('Macro-Risk Bull Market', 'expansive bull run', cycle comparisons to 2012/2016/2020) → Signal H wins over Signal C per precedence. Post is earnest with macro language, sarcasm filter does not trip. Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,820 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 120 |
| Duration used in scoring | 120 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $64,820 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 132.46,
"mfe": 79.34,
"mqs": 0.110452,
"ocs": 0.374599,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-30 18:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.002801,
"sigma_d": 0.02091557,
"eval_end": "2026-07-30 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.110452,
"max_close": 64836,
"min_close": 64702.8,
"eval_start": "2026-07-30 18:09:59+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 120,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.117042,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.371963,
"activation_price": 64820.46,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 5,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010458,
"scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
} 