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Passport #140702 · Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@matthewhyland_

Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

#BTC is perfectly healthy against the S&P500 When the Macro-Risk was turning in 2016 & 2020 BTC vs S&P500 was down -40% & -33% at those times Currently as the the same turn is occurring for the first time since 2020 BTC/S&P500 is only down 7% from the prior high that is aligned with the Macro-Risk high which occurred in 2021 as shown by Copper/Gold, PMI, RUSSEL/S&P500, RUSSELL/NASDAQ BTC got ahead of itself the past few years and outperformed during a period where historically it did not have success in the past as shown below (2014-2016 & 2018-2020 and now 2022-2026) Now its finally getting the favorable conditions that it experienced in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 for the first time since then This favors that BTC is set to have its real bull run over the coming years and is perfectly healthy against the S&P500 despite it not appearing so on the surface - It got far ahead of where it should have been and now has returned back to the appropriate position and arguably even still better positioned than where it was the prior two times as these shifts occurred in 2016 and 2020 as its down much less than those times currently This also applies to #ETH and the rest of the #Crypto market; the position of BTC Dominance, Altcoin Dominance, ETHBTC are identical to where they were in 2016 & 2020 Stay zoomed out as this will take multiple years to play out (due to the macro risk cycle extending in time) but the most bullish period is ahead and its all positioned appropriately as it was in 2016 & 2020

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

ETH

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	ETH
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	120 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Post extends bullish BTC thesis to ETH, comparing setup to 2016 & 2020 pre-bull-run conditions. Direction is up. No specific ETH price targets stated. Language is confident but framed as positioning/setup rather than declarative price call, hence mild_hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = ETH moves up in the bull run. Post explicitly extends the same macro/cycle thesis to ETH ('This also applies to #ETH'), identical framing to claim 0 → Signal H base 120.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	ETH
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$1,567
Target	—
Duration	120 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	120
Duration used in scoring	120

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$1,567
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Merge Flags

asset_mismatch: trueasset_mismatch_chart: NON_USD_PAIRasset_mismatch_claim: ETH

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 55.01,
  "mfe": 240.64,
  "mqs": 0.841988,
  "ocs": 0.813935,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-04 18:00:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.337687,
  "sigma_d": 0.02787366,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.841988,
  "max_close": 1804.67,
  "min_close": 1522.68,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-25 20:00:54+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 120,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.845083,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.748402,
  "activation_price": 1567.01,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 902,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.08323,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 2,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 2,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}