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Passport #132773 · Jun 21, 2026 · 16:26 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
MA@matthewhyland_
Jun 21, 2026 · 16:26 UTC
#BTC when this cross has taken place three prior times the drawdown was 96%-100% complete
This next cross will take place on the new monthly candle open in July https://t.co/ZHOsZZ2n1T
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post implies drawdown is 96-100% complete based on historical pattern, suggesting bottom is near and an upward move follows — directional up bias is inferred but never explicitly stated. No price targets given. Direction is debatable since the author only references a technical cross/pattern without directly calling for higher prices, so direction confidence is NOT PASS.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC is at/near bottom and moves up. 'July' is referenced as when the cross takes place (the trigger), not as a horizon for the subsequent price recovery — per §0.5, this is trigger-bound timing. No outcome-anchored horizon exists. Bottom/recovery framing → Signal B2 base 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,186 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,186 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: post_direction_confidence
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 6385.87,
"mfe": 1436.77,
"mqs": 0.613874,
"ocs": 0.183668,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-22 14:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.102109,
"sigma_d": 0.02468142,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.613874,
"max_close": 65578,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-21 16:26:59+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.951592,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.224913,
"activation_price": 64186.06,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1301,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.023523,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 15,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 15,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 15
} 