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Passport #120662 · Jun 17, 2026 · 16:01 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
MA@matthewhyland_
Jun 17, 2026 · 16:01 UTC
#BTC at worst there is a sweep of the lows similar to the April 2025 parabola break but anything deeper unlikely at least for a few months https://t.co/tAJJevvoKq
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster predicts at worst a sweep of the lows (downside move) with anything deeper unlikely. Direction is down. No explicit numeric price target provided — 'sweep of the lows' references prior lows but no number is stated. 'At worst' and 'unlikely' framing = mild_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC sweeps lows but nothing deeper expected. 'At least for a few months' is bound to the outcome (no deeper move), mapping to 'couple of months / few months' → 60 days explicit... but wait: 'few months' is outcome-bound → explicit_timeframe = 60. Actually re-checking: 'few months' maps to §3.2 'couple of months / few months' = 60, so explicit_timeframe = 60.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,848 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $65,848 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 597.94,
"mfe": 8047.8,
"mqs": 0.749086,
"ocs": 0.93084,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.507576,
"sigma_d": 0.02416141,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.749086,
"max_close": 66258,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-17 16:01:17+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.382646,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.796875,
"activation_price": 65847.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1686,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.088394,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 19,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 19,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 19,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 19
} 