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Passport #169213 · Jul 28, 2026 · 05:58 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
CR@cryptorphic1
Jul 28, 2026 · 05:58 UTC
$BTC Update:
It did exactly what I was expecting, rejected from the upper trendline and started moving lower.
We haven't seen the bounce back toward the entry area I was hoping for, so my short position is only partially filled for now. Still, I’ve opened a small short position as mentioned earlier.
For the risk management, I'm keeping the previous daily candle's high as my SL. If BTC closes a daily candle above that level, I'll consider the setup invalid.
Now watching how price reacts from here.
The breakdown is already in progress, but I’d still like to see further confirmation before adding more to the position.
#Bitcoin
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Clear bearish call — forecaster opened a short position and states 'breakdown is already in progress.' No specific price targets are stated; the previous daily high is mentioned as a stop loss (invalidation), not a target. Tone is declarative given the active short position.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC continues lower (short position in progress). No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present; 'daily candle' references are risk management triggers, not outcome timeframes. No bounce, bottom, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,452 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.31composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.66 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.52 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.66 |
| Max Favorable Move | +1.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −1.0% |
| Candles evaluated | 54 · 1d |
| Eval window | Jul 28, 2026 · 05:58 UTC → Jul 28, 2026 · 19:15 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $63,452 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 648.39,
"mfe": 709.14,
"mqs": 0.659888,
"ocs": 0.522375,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-28 14:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.051115,
"sigma_d": 0.01792497,
"eval_end": "2026-07-28 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.659888,
"max_close": 64043.26,
"min_close": 62991.28,
"eval_start": "2026-07-28 05:58:43+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.078479,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.308345,
"activation_price": 63451.61,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 54,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010363,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
} 