Call Audit

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Passport #128805 · Jun 20, 2026 · 12:32 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@cryptorphic1

Jun 20, 2026 · 12:32 UTC

$ETH Update 👀 I'm looking for shorts here. ETH has rallied back into a key resistance zone and is now running into the Hull Suite resistance, which has been acting as a strong ceiling over the past few days. The bounce is also losing momentum, and price is struggling to push higher despite multiple attempts. For me, this looks more like a relief rally than the start of a new uptrend. As long as ETH stays below this resistance area, I think a move lower is the more likely outcome. 📉 I'm leaning bearish here and looking for downside from this zone. #Ethereum

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

ETH

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Conditional
Activation	Active at Trigger

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	7 days · Short Term
Trigger	$1,788
Trigger Operator	Hold Above

AI Reasoning

Single conditional claim: as long as ETH stays below the Hull Suite resistance zone, downside is expected. No specific numeric trigger price stated (only chart-referenced resistance), and no numeric target provided. Hedged with 'I think' and 'more likely outcome'.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = ETH moves lower after failing to break resistance. Per §0.5, 'as long as ETH stays below this resistance area' is the trigger condition, not an outcome horizon. The post describes a relief rally losing momentum — relief rally framing → Signal B base 14, no tiebreaker cues to shift the bucket.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

Gate 1: ETH/USDT on 4h timeframe identified. Gate 2: Asset matches Stage 3 (ETH). Gate 3: Visible red/pink resistance zone with Hull Suite (red MA) acting as resistance — valid trigger structure for a Category A hold/resistance setup. Gate 4: Down claim is consistent with resistance above current price. Trigger extracted as upper edge of the resistance zone at 1788.20, but ambiguity exists between the two zone edges.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Activation	Active at Trigger
Activation price	$1,735
Target	—
Duration	7 days · Short Term
Trigger level	$1,788
Trigger operator	Hold Above
Conditional operator	Category A — Hold/Defend/Maintain/Resistance
Trigger hit	Yes
Trigger time	Jun 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

Scoring

0.92composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.90
Path Score (OCS)	0.98
Time Score (TIF)	0.98
Magnitude	0.90
Max Favorable Move	+12.8%
Max Unfavorable Move	−0.3%
Candles evaluated	673 · 4h
Eval window	Jun 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC → Jun 29, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	chart_timeframe
Duration stated (days)	7
Duration used in scoring	7

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3B->4B_modeA
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$1,725
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence

Merge Flags

trigger_from_chart: true

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 5.48,
  "mfe": 222.59,
  "mqs": 0.895473,
  "ocs": 0.975972,
  "tif": 0.976744,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-06-26 03:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.838487,
  "sigma_d": 0.0312702,
  "eval_end": "2026-06-29 20:00:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.895473,
  "max_close": 1736.67,
  "min_close": 1522.68,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-22 20:00:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": 1734.59,
  "trigger_ts": "2026-06-22 20:00:00+00:00",
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": true,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 14,
  "mew_days_used": 7,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 2.258313,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.921669,
  "activation_price": 1734.59,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 673,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.056823,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 43,
  "trigger_candle_index": 13,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 43,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 42,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}