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Passport #167176 · Jul 26, 2026 · 08:30 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
This On-Chain Signal Could Be The Start Of Bitcoin's Next Rally
Small whales holding 100–1,000 $BTC are back in profit.
The last time this happened, Bitcoin rallied shortly after.
Large whales were already profitable. Now smaller whales are joining them, A sign that market strength is improving.
History doesn't always repeat, but this on-chain signal suggests another short-term move higher could be starting.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bullish call based on on-chain signal suggesting a short-term move higher. No specific price targets stated. Language 'could be starting' and 'history doesn't always repeat' indicates heavy hedging.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC moves higher. No explicit horizon bound to the outcome. 'Short-term move higher' with 'shortly after' language fits Signal C (urgency/imminent) at base 14, with no tiebreaker cues to shift the bucket.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,394 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.42composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.76 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.39 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.40 |
| Magnitude | 0.76 |
| Max Favorable Move | +2.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −3.3% |
| Candles evaluated | 1345 · 8h |
| Eval window | Jul 26, 2026 · 08:30 UTC → Aug 9, 2026 · 08:30 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 14 |
| Duration used in scoring | 14 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,394 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2119,
"mfe": 1350.6,
"mqs": 0.760521,
"ocs": 0.389267,
"tif": 0.395349,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-27 06:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.139626,
"sigma_d": 0.01541479,
"eval_end": "2026-08-09 08:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 64886.82,
"magnitude": 0.760521,
"max_close": 65668.2,
"min_close": 62340.01,
"eval_start": "2026-07-26 08:30:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-09 08:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 14,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.429288,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.421191,
"activation_price": 64394,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1345,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.014674,
"scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 17,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}