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Passport #162508 · Jul 22, 2026 · 07:29 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
$AAVE Is One Breakout Away From a Massive Move
$AAVE continues to respect its bull flag after a strong bounce from channel support near $88.
Now all eyes are on $105.
A confirmed HTF breakout above $105 would validate the pattern and project a move toward $141.
Failure to reclaim $105 could trigger a pullback to the $90 demand zone, where the next directional move will likely be decided.
#AAVE @aave
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | AAVE |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | AAVE |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $105 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
Claim 2: Failure to reclaim $105 triggers a pullback down to the $90 demand zone. Hedged with 'could'.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = AAVE pulls back to $90 demand zone on failure to reclaim $105. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present. No §4 signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | AAVE |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $95.62 |
| Target | $90 – $90 |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $105 |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 22, 2026 · 08:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.47composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.49 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.49 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.49 |
| Magnitude | 0.49 |
| Max Favorable Move | +7.0% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −7.3% |
| Candles evaluated | 1345 · 8h |
| Eval window | Jul 22, 2026 · 08:00 UTC → Aug 5, 2026 · 08:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 14 |
| Duration used in scoring | 14 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $95.72 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 6.95,
"mfe": 6.65,
"mqs": 0.486716,
"ocs": 0.488967,
"tif": 0.488372,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-01 20:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.434977,
"sigma_d": 0.03213331,
"eval_end": "2026-08-05 08:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.486716,
"max_close": 102.28,
"min_close": 89.31,
"eval_start": "2026-07-22 08:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 95.62,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-22 08:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 14,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.666926,
"target_hit_ts": "2026-08-01 18:45:00+00:00",
"accuracy_score": 0.474758,
"activation_price": 95.62,
"dir_target_score": 1,
"candles_evaluated": 1345,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.104279,
"scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": 0,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 21,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}