Call Audit

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Passport #143905 · Jul 2, 2026 · 13:40 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC

@cryptokid

Jul 2, 2026 · 13:40 UTC

Expecting a retest of the 200D moving average with $BTC (in accordance to 4-year cyclicality). Following a ~$10,000 move upwards during the summer, I expect a rejection and the final low to be made in Q4. https://t.co/1cDRHOD8xw

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Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	declarative
Duration	91 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Per Stage 2, only the up leg is scored. Forecaster expects a ~$10,000 upward move during summer, but no absolute target price is provided (only a relative move from an unspecified base), so targets are null. 'I expect' with no hedge language is declarative.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC moves up ~$10k during summer. 'During the summer' is bound to the upward move (the outcome for this claim). D = 2026-07-02; summer ends Sep 30, 2026; Sep 30 − Jul 2 = 90 days, minimum 1, so 90 days. Treating 'summer' as through end of Q3 (Sep 30): 90 days.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$61,962
Target	—
Duration	91 days · Long Term

Scoring

0.56composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.52
Path Score (OCS)	0.64
Time Score (TIF)	1.00
Magnitude	0.52
Max Favorable Move	+2.4%
Max Unfavorable Move	−1.4%
Candles evaluated	256 · 1w
Eval window	Jul 2, 2026 · 13:40 UTC → Jul 5, 2026 · 05:30 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	91
Duration used in scoring	91

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	declarative
Spot price at post	$61,962
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 852.65,
  "mfe": 1500.35,
  "mqs": 0.524448,
  "ocs": 0.637633,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-04 19:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.063556,
  "sigma_d": 0.02170204,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.524448,
  "max_close": 63439.87,
  "min_close": 61191.99,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-02 13:40:08+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 91,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.743279,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.556409,
  "activation_price": 61961.64,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 256,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.032577,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}