Passport #178207 · Aug 7, 2026 · 09:56 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
CA@calebfranzen
Aug 7, 2026 · 09:56 UTC
Here's the thing...
Bitcoin looks quite good here as it tries to reclaim its 55-day EMA (red).
I've been calling for a relief rally for quite some time and it keeps taking much longer than I've expected, with each attempt fading.
I'm targeting the 200-day EMA (green).
But...
When I first shared that relief rally target, it was around $76k.
Today, it's $72k.
By definition, this means that upside today is quite limited.
Currently +12% implied upside.
I don't think any of us are going to get excited by that.
What should get us excited?
The opportunity to retest the 200-day EMA, break above it, and flip it into support for a potential bullish trend reversal.
That's what I'm hoping to see.
But a lot of work needs to happen between now and then.
Embrace nuance.
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster explicitly targets the 200-day EMA at $72k as an upside relief rally target (+12% implied upside). Direction is up. Language like 'targeting' and 'hoping to see' with acknowledgment that 'a lot of work needs to happen' suggests mild hedge. The $76k reference is historical context (previous target level), not a current prediction, so not extracted.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC rallies to the 200-day EMA (~$72k). No outcome-anchored horizon phrase exists; 'today' appears only in context of the current EMA level, not as a deadline for the move. The post explicitly frames this as a 'relief rally' that has been fading repeatedly, fitting Signal B (short-term bounce/relief) at base 14.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 314.32,
"mfe": 551.67,
"mqs": 0.674825,
"ocs": 0.63704,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-07 13:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.038927,
"sigma_d": 0.01514744,
"eval_end": "2026-08-07 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 64861,
"magnitude": 0.674825,
"max_close": 65308.35,
"min_close": 64599.99,
"eval_start": "2026-08-07 09:56:11+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-07 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.123393,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.587698,
"activation_price": 64839.32,
"dir_target_score": 0.065501,
"candles_evaluated": 39,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.007574,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}