Call Audit

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Passport #149209 · Jul 10, 2026 · 09:10 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@calebfranzen

Jul 10, 2026 · 09:10 UTC

I don't like it... But I think $MSTR is the best contrarian play in the market right now to exercise a relief rally thesis for Bitcoin, which I think could take price up to mid-$70k's. What I like (or dislike) doesn't matter. Making (and keeping) money is all that matters.

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	14 days · Short Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Author explicitly predicts a relief rally taking BTC price up to 'mid-$70k's', which I interpret as a range around 74k-76k. Language 'I think could take' is a mild hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC rises to mid-$70k's. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present. 'Relief rally' is Signal B language (short-term bounce/relief), base 14; no quick/urgency cues to push to 7, no medium-term language to push to 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$64,217
Target	$74,000 – $76,000
Duration	14 days · Short Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	14
Duration used in scoring	14

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$64,217
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 560.73,
  "mfe": 476.1,
  "mqs": 0.516834,
  "ocs": 0.459188,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-10 14:00:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.049639,
  "sigma_d": 0.02038496,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-11 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.516834,
  "max_close": 64542.48,
  "min_close": 63732.25,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-10 09:10:46+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 14,
  "mew_days_used": 14,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.727395,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.256415,
  "activation_price": 64216.73,
  "dir_target_score": 0.033297,
  "candles_evaluated": 82,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.010192,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 3,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 3,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}