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Passport #83212 · Jun 1, 2026 · 05:13 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
BE@benjamincowen
Jun 1, 2026 · 05:13 UTC
Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric brownian motion.
..but..
if i had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce.
But after the bounce is over (likely a few days to a week or so), I do think BTC will head back to the lows from February 2026.
If I'm wrong about BTC revisiting the lows from February, I will quote tweet this and simply say "I was wrong."
And then I will let every bull dunk away.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 10 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $70,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Hits / Retest |
AI Reasoning
Second leg of combination: once price taps $70k, a small bounce up is expected. No explicit numeric target for the bounce destination is provided. Hedged language ('I would guess') = mild_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = small bounce upward from $70k. 'A few days to a week or so' is bound to the bounce duration (the outcome), mapping to 'next 1–2 weeks' → 10 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $70,118 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 10 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $70,000 |
| Trigger operator | Hits / Retest |
| Conditional operator | Category E — Retest and continuation |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jun 2, 2026 · 08:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.05composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.17 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.01 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.17 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −15.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 961 · 4h |
| Eval window | Jun 2, 2026 · 08:00 UTC → Jun 12, 2026 · 08:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 10 |
| Duration used in scoring | 10 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3C |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $73,540 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 10987.51,
"mfe": 100.07,
"mqs": 0.166018,
"ocs": 0.009025,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-02 08:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.011315,
"sigma_d": 0.01572248,
"eval_end": "2026-06-12 08:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.166018,
"max_close": 70118.42,
"min_close": 59392.25,
"eval_start": "2026-06-02 08:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 70118.42,
"trigger_ts": "2026-06-02 08:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 10,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.181544,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.046589,
"activation_price": 70118.42,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 961,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.007861,
"scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 61,
"trigger_candle_index": 6,
"aggregated_candles_count": 61,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 61
}