Passport #83211 · Jun 1, 2026 · 05:13 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
BE@benjamincowen
Jun 1, 2026 · 05:13 UTC
Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric brownian motion.
..but..
if i had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce.
But after the bounce is over (likely a few days to a week or so), I do think BTC will head back to the lows from February 2026.
If I'm wrong about BTC revisiting the lows from February, I will quote tweet this and simply say "I was wrong."
And then I will let every bull dunk away.
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
First leg is directional down to $70k, the reversal point. 'If I had to guess, I would guess BTC tags $70k soon' is hedged language indicating a mild_hedge commitment.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops to $70k. 'Soon' is bound to this outcome but is vague soft temporal language → Signal D, no tiebreakers → DEFAULT 30.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1.48,
"mfe": 15739.81,
"mqs": 0.914781,
"ocs": 0.999906,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.752952,
"sigma_d": 0.01591237,
"eval_end": "2026-07-01 05:13:13+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.914781,
"max_close": 73540,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-01 05:13:13+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 2.462527,
"target_hit_ts": "2026-06-02 07:00:00+00:00",
"accuracy_score": 0.91691,
"activation_price": 73540,
"dir_target_score": 1,
"candles_evaluated": 2880,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.086915,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 31,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 31,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 31,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}