Call Audit

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Passport #82700 · May 29, 2026 · 14:53 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@benjamincowen

May 29, 2026 · 14:53 UTC

While I think BTC bottoms in Q4 2026, the time to start accumulating BTC is often after the drop into the summer. I basically just ignore Bitcoin for the first half of midterm years, then look for deals in the second half. You do not have to time bottoms exactly to make money

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	216 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Poster expects BTC to drop into summer before bottoming in Q4 2026, indicating a down call. No specific price targets provided. 'I think' signals a mild hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC bottoms (directional down). 'Q4 2026' is bound to the outcome ('BTC bottoms in Q4 2026'). D = 2026-05-29; Q4 2026 ends Dec 31, 2026; Dec 31 2026 − May 29 2026 = 216 days.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$73,097
Target	—
Duration	216 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	216
Duration used in scoring	216

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$73,097
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 1417.25,
  "mfe": 15296.66,
  "mqs": 0.813404,
  "ocs": 0.915205,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.342567,
  "sigma_d": 0.02188823,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.813404,
  "max_close": 74257.7,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-05-29 14:53:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 216,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.678807,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.767794,
  "activation_price": 73096.85,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 3419,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.124651,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 2,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 2,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}