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Passport #81331 · May 21, 2026 · 03:02 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
BE@benjamincowen
May 21, 2026 · 03:02 UTC
Ethereum is likely heading to its lower logarithmic regression trend line, which roughly aligns with the April 2025 lows. https://t.co/a7oXEEOjx5
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | ETH |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call - ETH heading to lower trend line aligning with April 2025 lows. 'Likely' indicates mild hedge. No explicit price target stated in the post (only a reference to April 2025 lows without a specific number), so targets are null.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = ETH declines to its lower logarithmic regression trend line. No explicit horizon is bound to the outcome; 'April 2025 lows' references a past price level, not a future date. No bounce, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | ETH |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $2,142 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $2,142 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 11.52,
"mfe": 636.55,
"mqs": 0.91936,
"ocs": 0.982224,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-06 05:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.655742,
"sigma_d": 0.02942046,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.91936,
"max_close": 2147.41,
"min_close": 1518.97,
"eval_start": "2026-05-21 03:02:42+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 2.517756,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.889331,
"activation_price": 2142.23,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 4234,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.118019,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 7,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 7,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 7,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 7
} 