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Passport #80945 · May 19, 2026 · 02:28 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
Bitcoin Rejected off its 200D.
In this video we talk about a couple of paths over the next few months.
I still think BTC goes lower into Q4, but the path to get there is hard to nail down. https://t.co/dowBj9t5LX
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 226 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Direction is down based on 'BTC goes lower into Q4'. 'I still think' indicates a mild hedge rather than a declarative statement. No specific price targets are provided; 200D rejection is context, not a target.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC goes lower. 'Into Q4' is bound to the outcome (not a trigger). D = 2026-05-19; Q4 ends Dec 31, 2026; Dec 31 − May 19 = 226 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $76,827 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 226 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 226 |
| Duration used in scoring | 226 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $76,827 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1373.13,
"mfe": 19026.68,
"mqs": 0.805997,
"ocs": 0.932689,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.391049,
"sigma_d": 0.02304419,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.805997,
"max_close": 78137.12,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-05-19 02:28:30+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 226,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.63988,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.782434,
"activation_price": 76826.87,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 4429,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.151021,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 2,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 2,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}