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Passport #80231 · May 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
BE@benjamincowen
May 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
In this video we talk about Bitcoin nearing the 200D SMA.
In 2018/2022, the 200D SMA was the local high.
In 2014/2019, BTC went slightly above.
In 2014/2018/2022, the lower high occurred around the 0.382 Fib retracement, which is around $85k.
But in 2018 and 2022 that corresponded to the 200D SMA.
Tough market to get right, but my guess is that a lower high is eventually formed and then BTC forms a major low in October 2026.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Per Stage 2, only the first leg (upside toward lower high) is scored as directional up. The $85k figure is referenced as the 0.382 Fib retracement area where a lower high historically formed, and the forecaster guesses a lower high will form — this could reasonably be interpreted as a target, but it could also be argued it is just a historical/technical reference rather than an explicit prediction. 'My guess' = heavy_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC forms a lower high (directional up toward ~$85k/200D SMA area). The 'October 2026' phrase is bound to the major low (the second leg, not scored), not to this claim's outcome of a lower high forming. No explicit horizon is attached to the lower high outcome, and no §4 signal (bounce, urgency, macro) fires for this leg → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $81,350 |
| Target | $85,000 – $85,000 |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.10composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.36 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.01 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.36 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.4% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −27.3% |
| Candles evaluated | 2880 · 1d |
| Eval window | May 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC → Jun 13, 2026 · 20:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $81,350 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: post_target_confidence
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 22219.09,
"mfe": 314.45,
"mqs": 0.356634,
"ocs": 0.013955,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-05-15 00:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.017692,
"sigma_d": 0.01752851,
"eval_end": "2026-06-13 20:00:05+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.356634,
"max_close": 81522,
"min_close": 59392.25,
"eval_start": "2026-05-14 20:00:05+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.441041,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.09707,
"activation_price": 81350,
"dir_target_score": 0.047123,
"candles_evaluated": 2880,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.008764,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 31,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 31,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
} 