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Passport #68941 · Feb 5, 2026 · 08:01 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
In 2019 when BTC dominance dropped, it dropped because BTC was dropping faster than alts.
Why?
Because by the time the bear market started, altcoins had already been annihilated.
Once BTC broke out of the bear market, BTC dominance went back up to the highs.
So I think it feels similar now.
BTC is post-top and after QT ended.
BTC goes down and drags the rest of the market with it.
Good chance this process ends later this year, so stay tuned!
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 329 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call on BTC: 'BTC is post-top' and 'BTC goes down and drags the rest of the market with it'. No specific price targets are stated. 'I think it feels similar' qualifies the call as a mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC goes down. 'Later this year' is bound to the outcome (the process ending/BTC declining). D = 2026-02-05; 'later this year' → Dec 31, 2026; 329 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $71,080 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 329 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 329 |
| Duration used in scoring | 329 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $71,080 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 11770.01,
"mfe": 13279.8,
"mqs": 0.458049,
"ocs": 0.530136,
"tif": 0.833333,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.252658,
"sigma_d": 0.02526531,
"eval_end": "2026-07-03 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.458049,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-02-05 08:01:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 329,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.61258,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.518544,
"activation_price": 71079.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 14198,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.304987,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 6,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 6,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 5,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 6
}