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Call Audit
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Passport #68729 · Feb 3, 2026 · 18:19 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
If BTC follows prior midterm years, it goes straight to the 200W SMA.
If BTC follows 2019, it bounces, then goes to 200W SMA in a few months.
Either way, BTC likely ends up at the 200W SMA this year
The path to get there is challenging, since BTC topped on apathy, not euphoria https://t.co/Cmmq9ZJSWP
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 331 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Author predicts BTC ends at the 200W SMA, framed as a downward move (BTC topped, path is challenging). No explicit price number is given for the 200W SMA, so targets are null. 'Likely' indicates a mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC reaches the 200W SMA (down). 'This year' is bound to the outcome ('BTC likely ends up at the 200W SMA this year'). D = 2026-02-03; 'this year' → Dec 31, 2026; 331 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $74,088 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 331 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 331 |
| Duration used in scoring | 331 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $74,088 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 8761.86,
"mfe": 16287.95,
"mqs": 0.519646,
"ocs": 0.650222,
"tif": 0.833333,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.294027,
"sigma_d": 0.02470542,
"eval_end": "2026-07-03 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.519646,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-02-03 18:19:52+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 331,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.733232,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.574307,
"activation_price": 74088.14,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 14349,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.299831,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 6,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 6,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 5,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 6
}