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Passport #141169 · Jun 26, 2026 · 15:42 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
BE@benjamincowen
Jun 26, 2026 · 15:42 UTC
While this bear market feels different, Bitcoin is still tracking the average of prior midterm-year bear markets.
Structurally, the market typically gets one final countertrend rally sometime in the summer before the final low occurs later in the year. https://t.co/ybrCMHz9Wr
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 188 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Per Stage 2, the extracted leg is the countertrend rally in summer (direction up). No price target is given. 'Typically' and 'one final countertrend rally' indicate a mild hedge rather than declarative. The later final low has no numeric reversal price and is excluded.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC countertrend rally in summer. 'Sometime in the summer' is bound to the outcome (the rally itself). D = 2026-06-26; summer ends ~Sep 22, 2026 (last day of summer); 2026-09-22 − 2026-06-26 = 88 days. However, 'in the summer' maps to the last day of summer (Sep 22), giving 88 days. Actually re-checking: D=Jun 26, Sep 22 is 88 days out → explicit_timeframe = 88.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $60,424 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 188 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 188 |
| Duration used in scoring | 188 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $60,424 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2623.94,
"mfe": 3037.86,
"mqs": 0.554585,
"ocs": 0.536554,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-04 19:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.091675,
"sigma_d": 0.0217504,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.554585,
"max_close": 63439.87,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-26 15:42:05+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 188,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.808749,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.545704,
"activation_price": 60424.13,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 824,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.062165,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
} 