Call Audit

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Passport #141169 · Jun 26, 2026 · 15:42 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@benjamincowen

Jun 26, 2026 · 15:42 UTC

While this bear market feels different, Bitcoin is still tracking the average of prior midterm-year bear markets. Structurally, the market typically gets one final countertrend rally sometime in the summer before the final low occurs later in the year. https://t.co/ybrCMHz9Wr

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@benjamincowen's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	188 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Per Stage 2, the extracted leg is the countertrend rally in summer (direction up). No price target is given. 'Typically' and 'one final countertrend rally' indicate a mild hedge rather than declarative. The later final low has no numeric reversal price and is excluded.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC countertrend rally in summer. 'Sometime in the summer' is bound to the outcome (the rally itself). D = 2026-06-26; summer ends ~Sep 22, 2026 (last day of summer); 2026-09-22 − 2026-06-26 = 88 days. However, 'in the summer' maps to the last day of summer (Sep 22), giving 88 days. Actually re-checking: D=Jun 26, Sep 22 is 88 days out → explicit_timeframe = 88.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$60,424
Target	—
Duration	188 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	188
Duration used in scoring	188

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$60,424
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 2623.94,
  "mfe": 3037.86,
  "mqs": 0.554585,
  "ocs": 0.536554,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-04 19:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.091675,
  "sigma_d": 0.0217504,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.554585,
  "max_close": 63439.87,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-26 15:42:05+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 188,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.808749,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.545704,
  "activation_price": 60424.13,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 824,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.062165,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}