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Passport #180421 · Aug 9, 2026 · 18:00 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
So far so good
$BTC did rally back to 65k in the Rebound period
Today is the last day of the favorable period, before the crash window starts
However these dates are +/- 1 day
Top can come today or tomorrow https://t.co/qvj1nGmxlM
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 1 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster predicts a top followed by a crash window starting today or tomorrow — directional down call. The 65k reference is a description of the rebound that already happened, not a target. No downside target price stated. Hedged with '+/- 1 day' timing language.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC tops and crashes. 'Top can come today or tomorrow' is bound to the outcome (the top/crash call), not a trigger. 'Today or tomorrow' → 1 day per §3.2.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,204 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 1 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.73composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.78 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.84 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.83 |
| Magnitude | 0.78 |
| Max Favorable Move | +2.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.4% |
| Candles evaluated | 96 · 15m |
| Eval window | Aug 9, 2026 · 18:00 UTC → Aug 10, 2026 · 18:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 1 |
| Duration used in scoring | 1 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $65,204 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 270.96,
"mfe": 1372.93,
"mqs": 0.777209,
"ocs": 0.835171,
"tif": 0.833333,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-10 17:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.483793,
"sigma_d": 0.014326,
"eval_end": "2026-08-10 18:00:14+00:00",
"end_close": 63953.04,
"magnitude": 0.777209,
"max_close": 65408.05,
"min_close": 63904.65,
"eval_start": "2026-08-09 18:00:14+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-10 18:00:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 1,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.501519,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.732376,
"activation_price": 65203.5,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 96,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.014023,
"scoring_candle_tf": "15m",
"tif_total_aggregated": 96,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 96,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 80,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 96
}