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Call Audit
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Passport #136615 · Jun 10, 2026 · 15:09 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
If you study the three previous bitcoin:native Bear Markets they have been incredibly consistent
Lasting 58, 51 and 52 weeks respectively
That puts a Cycle Bottom in Q4
Doesn't mean it will happen again exactly, but that's my base case until proven otherwise https://t.co/qFzd6dt9Xx
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 204 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster's base case is a cycle bottom in Q4, implying continued bearish/downward price action until then. No explicit price targets are given. 'Base case until proven otherwise' qualifies as a mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC cycle bottom in Q4. 'Q4' is bound to the outcome (cycle bottom lands in Q4). D = 2026-06-10; last day of Q4 = Dec 31, 2026; 204 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $61,942 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 204 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 204 |
| Duration used in scoring | 204 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $61,942 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5350.15,
"mfe": 4141.81,
"mqs": 0.492554,
"ocs": 0.436349,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.116841,
"sigma_d": 0.02181282,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.492554,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-10 15:09:52+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 204,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.678364,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.261436,
"activation_price": 61942,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2266,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.098569,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}