Call Audit

What would convince me that $57K was the final $BTC cycle low? A break above $75K would be the earliest real indication. That is the neckline of the prior range's double bottom. Reclaiming it would begin invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend established from $126K. However, the breakout alone would not be enough. BTC would then need to sustain an extended rally or range sideways for several months. Similar to the February rally, time would need to start working in favour of the bottoming thesis. Right now, too much still argues against it. We have not experienced a genuine bottoming phase or late capitulation. BTC has simply been grinding lower. It would be the shallowest bear-market drawdown, roughly three months earlier than any previous cycle bottom, while the broader market structure remains in a bearish downtrend. We're also now seeing markets pricing the equivalent of roughly two further rate hikes by year-end, which creates additional windows where macro conditions could lean against risk assets like BTC. For $57K to remain the cycle low, BTC may need to survive all of this while holding its structure for more than three months. It is possible. But until $75K breaks and time begins confirming the move, $57K remains a major low, not necessarily the final low.