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Passport #161553 · Jul 21, 2026 · 14:06 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
AR@ardinsc
Jul 21, 2026 · 14:06 UTC
Every $BTC relief rally during this bear market has either tested or temporarily deviated above the Bull Market Support Band.
It currently sits around $69K-$70K.
If we invalidate the daily swing at $67K, then I think a third test of the band comes into play.
Unable to flip $67K, and we remain capped below HTF resistance.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $67,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Above |
AI Reasoning
Claim 1: 'Invalidate the daily swing at $67K' means breaking above 67K, triggering an upward move to test the Bull Market Support Band at $69K-$70K. 'I think' indicates mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC rallies to test the Bull Market Support Band (~$69K-$70K). Per §0.5, 'if we invalidate the daily swing at $67K' is the trigger; no horizon phrase is attached to the outcome. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires clearly → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $66,944 |
| Target | $69,000 – $70,000 |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $67,000 |
| Trigger operator | Break Above |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Pump/Close Above |
| Trigger hit | No |
Scoring
This call is conditional pending — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | — |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $66,944 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mqs": null,
"ocs": null,
"tif": null,
"status": "untriggered",
"eval_end": "2026-07-21 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": null,
"eval_start": "2026-07-21 14:06:11+00:00",
"trigger_ts": null,
"trigger_hit": false,
"review_flags": {},
"accuracy_score": null,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 21
} 