Passport #162519 · Jul 22, 2026 · 09:09 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
AL@alienops
Jul 22, 2026 · 09:09 UTC
$BTC
For the remainder of 2026, I believe a price path like this is a realistic possibility.
The key requirement is a confirmed CISD, followed by bullish continuation.
At first, many participants may conclude that "the bottom is in." However, in this scenario, the upside serves a different purpose: harvesting liquidity, completing the macro discount-to-premium cycle, and setting the stage for the real capitulation after a premium sweep.
I've tried to make the roadmap as clear as possible. Every major move on the chart is explained and supported by its underlying reasoning.
I know this isn't the type of price action CT is expecting, which is exactly why I find it interesting.
That said, the higher-timeframe structure still looks weak. A bullish continuation is less likely than a bearish resolution, but if the required conditions are met, it remains a valid possibility. Market makers rarely reward the consensus.
Under this scenario, ETH and altcoins could continue to outperform BTC, giving room for a meaningful mini bullszn before the macro trend resumes.
My long-term view remains unchanged: I still believe $BTC has a high probability of trading below $50K before the end of 2026.
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 162 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Long-term view is bearish: BTC trading below $50K before end of 2026. 'High probability' = mild_hedge. The bullish scenario discussed is a conditional interim possibility, not the primary call, and no specific upside targets are given for it. $50K is the stated downside target.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC trades below $50K. 'Before the end of 2026' is bound to the outcome. D = 2026-07-22; Dec 31 2026 − Jul 22 2026 = 162 days.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 374.75,
"mfe": 455.58,
"mqs": 0.482794,
"ocs": 0.548673,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-22 13:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.013595,
"sigma_d": 0.0209362,
"eval_end": "2026-07-22 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.482794,
"max_close": 66283.99,
"min_close": 65621.16,
"eval_start": "2026-07-22 09:09:10+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 162,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.659314,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.511265,
"activation_price": 66009.25,
"dir_target_score": 0.024242,
"candles_evaluated": 41,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010468,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}