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Call Audit
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Passport #161464 · Jul 20, 2026 · 21:45 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
$BTC
I still don't think we've seen the final capitulation.
A 41% correction isn't enough to convince me that this cycle has found its ultimate bottom.
- to be continued.. https://t.co/iKOa67JXuC
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster expects further downside ('haven't seen final capitulation', 41% correction isn't enough) = down direction. 'I still don't think' and 'to convince me' language indicates mild hedge. No specific price targets stated — the 41% is a reference to past correction, not a target.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines further (final capitulation not yet seen). No explicit horizon phrase bound to the outcome. 'This cycle' and 'ultimate bottom' are earnest macro/cycle framing → Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,286 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 180 |
| Duration used in scoring | 180 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $65,286 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1670.13,
"mfe": 193.36,
"mqs": 0.244818,
"ocs": 0.103762,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-20 22:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.005535,
"sigma_d": 0.02109526,
"eval_end": "2026-07-21 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.244818,
"max_close": 66944.4,
"min_close": 65127.99,
"eval_start": "2026-07-20 21:45:57+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 180,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.280796,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.088529,
"activation_price": 65286.02,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 86,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010548,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}