Call Audit

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Passport #135871 · Jun 6, 2026 · 15:39 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@alienops

Jun 6, 2026 · 15:39 UTC

bitcoin:native I’ve realized that the crowd is largely positioned for the same sequence; downside continuation followed by upside. In that case, the higher-probability path may be the reverse up first, then a deeper move lower.

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	heavy_hedge
Duration	30 days · Medium Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Per Stage 2, only the first leg ('up first') is scored as directional. No price targets are stated. Language 'higher-probability path may be' indicates heavy hedging.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC moves up first (the 'reverse up' leg). No horizon phrase is attached to this outcome. No bounce, urgency, bottom-call, or macro signal fires — the post is a contrarian crowd-positioning observation with no temporal cues → DEFAULT 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$60,862
Target	—
Duration	30 days · Medium Term

Scoring

0.68composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.81
Path Score (OCS)	0.68
Time Score (TIF)	0.77
Magnitude	0.81
Max Favorable Move	+10.6%
Max Unfavorable Move	−5.0%
Candles evaluated	2880 · 1d
Eval window	Jun 6, 2026 · 15:39 UTC → Jul 6, 2026 · 15:39 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	30
Duration used in scoring	30

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	heavy_hedge
Spot price at post	$60,862
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 3061.35,
  "mfe": 6430.61,
  "mqs": 0.806341,
  "ocs": 0.67748,
  "tif": 0.774194,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-06-15 16:00:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.449172,
  "sigma_d": 0.02143685,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-06 15:39:23+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.806341,
  "max_close": 67292.14,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-06 15:39:23+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": true,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 30,
  "mew_days_used": 30,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.641655,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.676797,
  "activation_price": 60861.54,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 2880,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.064362,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 31,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 31,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 24,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}