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Passport #150227 · Jul 11, 2026 · 20:05 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
AL@alicharts
Jul 11, 2026 · 20:05 UTC
BITCOIN: WEEKEND BREAKOUT?
The definitive level to watch is the top of the channel at $64,700. This serves as the critical inflection point for Bitcoin's next major move.
A failure to break through this channel cap will likely trigger a deeper correction. If sellers defend $64,700, expect a decline back to the mid-range support at $63,000, with the potential to retest the absolute channel bottom near $61,500.
Nonetheless, securing an hourly close above $64,700 invalidates the bearish outlook. Clearing this boundary opens the path for an expansion to $66,400, with a secondary target at $68,000.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $64,700 |
| Trigger Operator | Hold Above |
AI Reasoning
Claim 1: If sellers defend $64,700 (holding below as resistance), expect decline to $63,000 with potential retest of $61,500. Trigger is the resistance hold; targets are the downside destinations.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines to $63,000/$61,500 after sellers defend $64,700. Per §0.5, the trigger is 'failure to break $64,700'; no horizon phrase is bound to the outcome. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $64,356 |
| Target | $61,500 – $63,000 |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $64,700 |
| Trigger operator | Hold Above |
| Conditional operator | Category A — Hold/Defend/Maintain/Resistance |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 11, 2026 · 22:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.74composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.76 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.81 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.89 |
| Magnitude | 0.76 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.9% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.9% |
| Candles evaluated | 289 · 1h |
| Eval window | Jul 11, 2026 · 22:00 UTC → Jul 14, 2026 · 22:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 3 |
| Duration used in scoring | 3 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,325 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 610.44,
"mfe": 2531.02,
"mqs": 0.75698,
"ocs": 0.805683,
"tif": 0.890411,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-13 18:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.514844,
"sigma_d": 0.02041712,
"eval_end": "2026-07-14 22:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.75698,
"max_close": 64822.87,
"min_close": 61904.99,
"eval_start": "2026-07-11 22:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 64355.99,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-11 22:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 3,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.414613,
"target_hit_ts": "2026-07-13 03:15:00+00:00",
"accuracy_score": 0.74198,
"activation_price": 64355.99,
"dir_target_score": 1,
"candles_evaluated": 289,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.027802,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 73,
"trigger_candle_index": 1,
"aggregated_candles_count": 73,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 65,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 73
} 